Heading towards an Israel-Hizbollah confrontation?

The current US administration has adopted a clear anti-Iranian strategy that is not limited to rhetoric, but also puts pressure on its allies to assist in isolating Iran.

Prince Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar gave a speech last week thanking the countries that opened air space for Qatari planes, without mentioning Iran.

Recently, there was also a Kuwait-Iran diplomatic crisis, which resulted in the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador and 14 other diplomats for alleged links to a spy and terrorist cell.

The US president also asked Sultan Qaboos of Oman to help contain Iran’s influence in the region and observers are witnessing Saudi attempts to start a dialogue with Iraq as a further attempt to contain Iranian influence. This coordinated effort is not limited to Iran, but also to its key allies.

Recently, the US anti-Hizbollah rhetoric reappeared as the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, urged the UN Security Council to acknowledge that Hizbollah “is a destructive terrorist force” and “a major obstacle to peace” that is “dedicated to the destruction of Israel”.

This rhetoric harks back to the 2005-2008 policies that targeted the Lebanese party and preceded the July 2006 war against Hizbollah.

Such approach was also seen during the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri’s last visit to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump.

The likely goal is to isolate Hizbollah and put more pressure on the group, as new agreements and understandings are being negotiated for Syria.

According to the US National Security Report, Hizbollah has not been listed as a direct threat to the US for the last three years due to its role in fighting terrorist groups.

That assessment has clearly shifted as Hizbollah is being leveraged as part of the plan to isolate Iran.

Greater US efforts to enforce decisions on Hizbollah and more calls on the militant group to disarm are also likely to be seen.

These changes in the US’ approach come at a time when the activity in Syria is reducing, so Hizbollah is increasingly turning its attention back to Lebanon.

Over recent years, there have been reports that Hizbollah’s weaponisation has peaked, including technologically.

Yet, the group suffered significant losses, both in manpower and financial.

Hizbollah has also seen a shift in the level of support from its key supporter base, including areas that were generally regarded as social incubators for the movement.

Yet, it has been improving tactically and the soldiers and members of the group are battle hardened and gained much more experience from their extensive activities in Syria.

Even though Hizbollah may be facing serious political, social and financial challenges, it is still a serious and well-organised opponent to both the US and Israel.

The group’s main strategy will continue to be to raise the cost of war for Israel and try to shift the battle lines south, towards the upper Galilee.

It appears that we are witnessing a phase preceding an inevitable confrontation, as Israel is not willing to accept the increasing threat that Hizbollah represents, and will take advantage of the US strategy of isolating Iran, a fragile Syria and the consensus that many Arab states share on the issue of weakening Hizbollah.

All this suggests that the coming months might bring some shift of attention from Syria to its neighbouring countries.

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