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Israel and Hizbollah — what does the future have in store?

Dec 11,2016 - Last updated at Dec 11,2016

Once again the last weeks there were reports of Israeli jet fighters attacking a Hizbollah convoy west of Damascus.

These ongoing attacks of Hizbollah fighters, leaders and convoys are part of an escalation between Israel and the Lebanese party that could soon lead to open confrontation.

Three factors encourage Israel to seriously consider such a move.

The first is related to the presence of Hizbollah in Syria, and its proximity to the Golan Heights.

Analysts say that Hizbollah’s financial and human resources were seriously drained and its popularity is on the decline both in Lebanon and abroad.

This could be an opportunity for Israel to attack Hizbollah immediately after the war in Syria.

The second factor would be Israel’s concern with the experience Hizbollah fighters gained in Syria.

Cooperation with various militias and the development of new fighting techniques and tactics from a wide network inside Syria and across the region could see Hizbollah implement them against Israel, as its attention turns back to its traditional foe.

The third factor relates to the use of new technology and techniques in spying that Hizbollah has been using.

There have been multiple incidents of drones crossing into Israeli air space and evading Israeli defences, taking pictures and collecting intelligence on Israeli troops and installations. 

This is a new threat that could be of great concern to Israel.

With these indicators suggesting an increasing probability of confrontation, one wonders what Hizbollah has prepared. 

It has new technology and techniques, but perhaps it is also thinking that offence is the best form of defence. Furthermore, it may consider that surprise would be to its advantage, which means we could see a confrontation on Israeli soil.

Hizbollah would also be preparing itself for an end to the crisis in Syria, which it will no longer be able to use as a logistical, political and financial base, as it did in the past.

The same would also apply to Iran, which is working to keep deals with the international community, which means that Hizbollah will not have the same level of backing as it had in the past.

We may see a change in Hizbollah’s political strategy as it managed to facilitate the deal that saw its ally, General Michael Aoun, become the president of Lebanon, which may also see it address its illegal status of state within a state.

Despite all these indicators, the key to whether we will witness a confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel, or a regional settlement, is likely to be determined by the new protagonist in the region, Russia.

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