New president in Lebanon — whose victory?

After more than two years without a president, Lebanon has finally elected Michel Aoun. It is interesting to follow the various narratives run by the political elites in Lebanon to explain Aoun’s arrival at Ba’abdah Palace. 

Shifting priorities across the region have variously impacted Lebanon over the last few years. 

The fact that the power vacuum of the last two years in Lebanon was filled is likely to have a positive effect on some of its neighbours. It should also insulate political players in Lebanon from regional and international influence in the future.

The Lebanese political landscape has been shaped for many years by Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, France and the US. The belief was that only consensus amongst those powers, difficult as it is to reach, could ensure a stable government in Lebanon.

The change this week appears to have thrown all Lebanese political parties into crisis. Now they all need to start finding a way for Lebanon to progress. 

The election of Aoun does not represent a victory for any group; it, rather, points to the importance of finding internal consensus. 

For Hizbollah, the coming years will bring various challenges, especially after the Syrian crisis that will inevitably result in some kind of change in the relationship they used to enjoy.

After having signed the nuclear agreement, Iran will likely limit its support for the group, so Hizbollah will have to rethink its strategy to grow political influence and power.

Christians in Lebanon are also displaying a unity that has not been seen for many years. 

Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, the second largest Christian political part in Lebanon, was a key player in nominating Aoun for president, and tactically joined Aoun as a defender of Christians from the “takfiri” terrorist groups. 

Moreover, by supporting Aoun, Geagea made himself a more viable candidate for the presidency in the future. 

The presidency of Aoun is an important opportunity to put Lebanon back on track, but as president, he cannot adopt the language and positions he used to.

The same applies to Saad Hariri as prime minister, who needs to show political flexibility, as the challenges for Lebanon are not just domestic economy, security and development, but also restoring relations with other countries.

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