From psychological to geographical divisions

Over the last century, turbulence has been normal in the Middle East. It assumed different trends, but the last five years further highlighted sectarian and ethnic divisions, both within and across borders.

Many believe that sectarian differences also represent psychological divisions amongst people. Given the arbitrariness of the current borders, perhaps a regional stabilisation strategy should involve aligning these psychological divisions with the geographical ones.

Some of the sectarian divisions can be traced back to the Iranian revolution of 1979, which was closely followed by the eruption of the Iranian-Arab conflict with the almost decade-long Iran-Iraq war. 

That period also saw a rise in Wahhabism, as the Khomeini doctrine fostered division between Shiites and Sunnis, Arabs and Iranians.

Since then, sectarianism has assumed more complex dimensions, while the Shiite-Sunni and Iranian-Arab tensions still exist.

In some situations, those differences were put aside to further other agendas.

After the fall of Iraq in 2003, a new wave of sectarianism swept the region.

Some believe that Iraq will struggle to maintain its national identity due to the divisions and sectarianism of its population.

Syria faces many of the same challenges, as does Yemen and likely any other country in the region where internal conflict boils over.

The trend is towards a weakening of national identity while regional groups, ethnicities and sects are the modern component of identity in the Middle East.

Ethnicity and religious identity being the strongest identifier weaken social structures and fragment countries and nations in the region as we know them.

Much like with the establishment of the current borders, secularism was the only remedy for these trends.

However, following World War II, the region witnessed a systematic anti-secular approach, and the marriage of theocracy and autocracy spread, having a distinctly negative impact on the cultural identity of countries across the region.

In addition, historically, international intervention has been focused on secular countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria.

The recent coup in Turkey appears to be the leverage President Recep Tayyip Erdogan needed to shift the last secular system in the region towards a more “theocratic regime” as he eliminates his opposition and weakens the secular military power base, which acted as a counterbalance to his religious preferences.

These developments are likely to encourage some of Turkey’s minority communities to push for independence. 

Groups such as Kurds and Alawites, who also live in Syria and Iraq, already want their own country, and their marginalisation in all the countries they live in has only spurred them on.

The failure to build secular national identities is one of the major reasons for the fragmentation we see nowadays, in combination with the growing power and authority the region cedes to religion.

Mark Sykes, British foreign secretary and architect of the modern borders of the region, noted 100 years ago that the people of the region have a very strong ethnic pride, and building national identities would be a challenge.

The destination of the path we are currently on, with rising ethnic and sectarian division, is likely to be a shift from psychological and cultural divisions to geographical ones.

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