Risk of military escalation in Syria

The attempts of some Syrian groups to block the talks in Geneva demonstrate their desire to modify the political power map.

The military achievements of the Syrian army gave the government delegation clout at the Geneva talks.

Some opposition groups and their backers, especially Turkey and Saudi Arabia, refused the US-Russian-imposed political solution in Syria, and made serious attempts to hinder the talks in Geneva, focusing on changing the balance of power on the ground through fortifying the Free Syrian Army and other opposition groups.

Since the first day of the current round of talks, members of the opposition highlighted the need to go back to fighting as the only way to change some points of the proposed political solution, especially the part related to the role of Bashar Assad in the transitional period.

Reportedly, new arms shipments made their way to some Syrian opposition groups, which explains why they insisted on hindering the talks in Geneva and suggested going back to fighting.

The warring groups believe that any potential fight in Syria today should focus on Daesh and Jabhat Al Nusra. This may explain Russia’s and the US’ position regarding saving the Syrian institutions, and preventing the Syrian Army from failing.

By returning to fighting, the major goal is not to confront the Syrian Army, but to prevent it from being the only protagonist with a say on the situation in Syria.

As such, having a new military body capable of facing Daesh, equal to the Syrian Army and that might control all Syrian territory would help the opposition parties in Geneva.

Talks are the only way through which a political solution can be applied in Syria.

However, the obstinate position of some opposition parties could lead to new escalation in the coming days.

No Syrian opposition group can claim to represent the Syrian people. 

The only way they can gain some legitimacy is by negotiating peace.

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