The risk of political isolation

The ever-dynamic geopolitics of the Middle East have been particularly fluid recently.

Since US President Donald Trump's recent visit to Riyadh, which included a summit and the announcement of an anti-terrorism coalition, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the main political protagonist in the region.

If Saudi Arabia is serious about initiating real progressive reform within the Islamic world, there is hope for change.

That, however, will not be easy, especially given the internal politics that the ruling class in Saudi Arabia is faced with.

Separating religious state from nation state is the only real way to end the continuous official exploitation of religion. A clear division of the religious mandate as custodian of the two holy mosques mandate from that of king of Saudi Arabia as leader of the state is required.

This clear division could also create a clearer religious identity.

In the meantime, we are also seeing normalisation of relations between Israel and some Arab countries.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, referred to this on two different occasions recently: when he said that Israel is more interested in peace with Arab countries and when he welcomed Trump to Israel, saying that he looked forward to the day when a plane could follow the same route Trump took, but going directly from Jerusalem to Riyadh, rather than through a third country. 

The increasing normalisation of Israeli-Arab relations and the potential for an exclusive group representing the Sunni Muslim community would have wider implications across the region and the world. In particular, it could isolate some countries politically and reduce their influence. 

Jordan is one of the countries that could be affected by these developments.

Sovereignty over Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem could stir competition and rivalry within the Muslim political system. We saw the potential for this recently, as several groups claimed to have influenced the Israeli decision to reopen the mosque.

Jordan’s strategic geography has always been an advantage, but clever strategic thinking is required in order to leverage that advantage.

Given recent developments, Jordan should be seeking a complete change in attitude, strategies and political decisions. It should seek to reengage with Iraq and Syria, because in any process of rebuilding Syria, Damascus could be Jordan's lungs.

Jordan also needs to bolster its internal systems, as true legitimacy comes from a strong internal political system.

There is a real risk of increased challenges as a result of external factors like Al Aqsa Mosque.

It is important also to review how Israeli-Jordanian relations have deteriorated to this point. The Israeli ambassador and entire staff left Jordan, which is effectively an unofficial severing of diplomatic ties.

Given the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel, it is important to revise how both countries got to this point.

Jordan must focus and be smart enough to avoid the potential political isolation that could result from recent developments in the region.

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