Scenarios in facing Daesh

Many experts nowadays attempt to analyse the various scenarios Daesh might adopt in the future.

The group’s situation in Syria and Iraq is pushing it to find new spaces, i.e., Libya.

Libya is one of the most attractive places for Daesh today. Its wide geographical space, its borders with African countries, its chaotic state and the shores on the Mediterranean encouraged the terrorist group to put up a new base there.

Daesh will no doubt be helped by the political chaos in Libya to impose its brutal authority.

This calls for immediate international support, through the UN Security Council, knowing that it will take time to garner it.

On the other hand, preparations for battles to liberate Mosul and Raqqa from Daesh are still going on.

The US apparently insists on playing a key role in these operations.

Reports confirmed Daesh’s use of chemical agents (mustard gas, sarin); the reaction of the terrorist group when cornered is hard to predict and this should make the US and any other coalition member cautious regarding any direct military intervention.

On the other hand, losing the “Caliphate’s” main base might bring about the fall of Daesh, but the concept of caliphate will not fall easily.

This means that the risk of seeing a new version of Daesh claiming to represent the caliphate will always be there.

Attacking Daesh at its base might result in various reactions. Above all, it will tempt the terrorist group to strike globally.

Most security reports deem that anticipating the Raqqa and Mosul battles, Daesh will seek to widen its scope of attack by targeting different places to create panic, chaos and fear about global security.

Daesh has turned to recruiting children and women to conduct operation, which could take many unprepared.

The terrorist group can be expected to conduct extremely brutal operations that will make up for any loss of territory and, at the same time, prove that it is not affected by such loss.

The new confrontation Daesh seeks to achieve will be global; any country might be subjected to its attacks.

Lone actors may be the main protagonists and recent events proved that one individual terrorist can drain the resources of many security services in any country.

What is needed today is to avoid falling into the trap of terrorist threat and avoid reacting wrongly to the risks terrorists pose.

Future challenges might be unconventional, and facing them should push decision makers to not focus merely on security, but also to invest heavily in human capital.

The major concern should be to eliminate the roots of terrorism, along with taking precautions against the threat of terrorism.

If terrorist groups continue to breed, brutality and violence will increase and make many fanatics see the current battle as Armageddon, or the final battle.

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