Threats to Syria’s territorial integrity

The failure to reach a political solution in Syria has created chaos and is likely to lead to a new phase of escalation and potential division of the country.

This is not the first time such possibilities have existed.

There was escalating violence during the siege of Homs and the attempts by the Syrian military to enter the rebel-controlled district of Baba Amro. 

There were similar levels of escalation in the battle of Aleppo, attacks on the capital, Damascus, and by borders with Jordan.

While the prospect of a free, separated, zone in the north or south of Syria is appealing to some countries, attempts to achieve this have failed so far. 

Still, some countries continue to view this scenario as key to effecting constructive change in Syria.

Some political analysts suggested that the recent escalation in Syria is tied to the progress on the nuclear agreement with Iran, which could have led to the apparent reconciliation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the recent battle for Idlib.

According to Egyptian political experts, Cairo does not agree with such possibilities of Syria.

Similarly, Jordan has grave concerns about the chaos that could result from such an escalation at its borders.

In a broader perspective, there are real fears that confrontations will spread from Yemen to Iraq and Libya. The likelihood of new theatres of open violence has also increased now that Saudi Arabia has become an active participant in the regional conflict.

The lack of an effective political solution in Syria is the main reason for the continuing escalation of the situation there.

While most Western countries do not accept the prospect of a collapse of the Syrian state, the tactics they are applying continue to weaken its structural integrity. 

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