A tenuous ceasefire that will hopefully last

The ceasefire in Syria, brokered by Russia and the US, appears to be holding so far, giving reason for guarded optimism.

It took Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry many long days of painstaking negotiations before a deal was struck to coincide with the beginning of Eid Al Adha last Monday.

Syrian warplanes rained bombs on Aleppo and Idlib on the eve of the start of the ceasefire in a show of defiance and, one would believe, lack of goodwill. 

Scores of innocent people were killed in the bombardments at a time all the sides were expecting signs of good intentions as a prelude for the much needed end of hostilities that ravaged Aleppo, Idlib and scores of other Syrian cities and towns. 

Saturday, the US-led coalition was accused by Damascus and Moscow of having launched air strikes on a Syrian army position, killing 60 soldiers and demonstrating how precarious the ceasefire is.

Credit goes to Moscow for convincing Damascus to agree to the ceasefire. The US has little influence over the fighting in Syria because, unlike Russia, it has neither ground forces, at least officially, nor air power deployed in the country.

If the truce continues, it may still provide the platform for the start of the, so far, eluding peace talks between Damascus and the main opposition groups.

The chances of success of any peace talks are quite limited, since Damascus has a much stronger bargaining power than the opposition.

The uneven military and political strengths of the two sides to the armed conflict is not conducive to a political process that could end the conflict in Syria.

If that proves true, a return to fighting in the country can be expected as soon as the two sides regroup their forces and redeploy them.

Damascus, helped by Moscow’s air and naval power, can be expected to get stronger while the opposition’s military strength can only remain moderate.

Russia holds the key to war or peace in Syria.

Judging by its actions, the Syrian government is bent on a military solution come what may.

If the reading is right, that spells more death and destruction.