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Abadi’s difficult task

Sep 01,2014 - Last updated at Sep 01,2014

The new Iraqi prime minister, Haider Al Abadi, is walking a tightrope. His task of forming an inclusive government is far from easy.

Dismantling the legacy of his predecessor and maintaining the support of the various Shiite factions will be a daunting task.

To be sure, the Sunni forces in Iraq seek to reverse the policies of Nouri Al Maliki.

For instance, the Sunnis’ demands include: freeing tens of thousands of imprisoned Sunnis (many of them jailed without trial in the name of fighting terrorism); greater say in politics by assuming some sovereign ministries such as defence, finance or interior); and reversing the policy of purging Sunni officers from security forces.

There is no agreement among Shiite political factions on whether to respond to these demands or, if they do, how much.

It is not clear yet if Abadi will be able to meet all these demands. Some Shiite forces are opposed to giving in to the Sunni demands.

A while ago, Sunni leaders blamed Shiite militias for the massacre of dozens of Sunni worshippers during Friday prayers in the Diyala province.

In response to the unprovoked massacre, Sunni leaders withdrew from negotiations over forming the new government. Sectarian bloodletting will continue to be a challenge for the new prime minister.

Unlike Maliki (who alienated not only the Kurds and the Sunnis but also many Shiites), Abadi seems to enjoy wider backing by Shiite forces. Despite the support, however, he will find himself alienating some Shiite factions in his efforts to meet Sunni demands.

One of Abadi’s problems is that he represents the Dawa Party and the State of Law Coalition, which won 92 seats in the April parliamentary elections. It remains to be seen how he can please his party without running the risk of alienating other Shiite factions.

At the same time, Abadi’s mission cannot be expected to be free of external meddling. He needs to take into account the Iranian influence among the Shiite factions.

Tehran views the Shiites as a counterweight force to Sunni Arab rivals.

Additionally, it seems that Iran will not easily give up on its benefits from America’s gambling in Iraq. 

It was the US that ousted Iran’s archenemy — the Baath regime — and helped install a pro-Iran Shiite government.

By the time the US withdrew from Iraq in 2011, Iran managed to have greater influence on most of the Shiite factions.

If anything, Tehran seeks to ensure that Iraq will not pose a threat to Iranian interests in the future. Hence, it is natural for Tehran to push for a friendly government in Baghdad.

Given the fact that Iran still has great influence over key Shiite factions, Abadi needs Tehran’s backing if he wishes to stay in power.

Now with the rise of the Islamic State, the central government as well as Iran feel threatened.

The threat posed by the Islamic State is not going to disappear quickly. Although US President Barack Obama ordered air strikes against militants in northern Iraq, he is still not decisive in dealing with the Islamic State.

In fact, the American administration lacks a strategy in dealing with the Islamic State. In Obama’s words: “I don’t want to put the cart before the horse: We don’t have a strategy yet.”

Abadi needs to balance pressure coming from different directions. It is one thing to get nominated for the position of premiership and another to work out a working coalition to rule Iraq.

Abadi understands that he enjoys the backing of the West and Iran. And yet, forming a government that can restore peace in a country fraught with deep internal crises and regional proxy war will be a difficult task.

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