Is a deal with Iran possible?

Iran and the six world powers involved in talks with it started a new round of talks with the objective of reaching a comprehensive agreement.

Thus far, they failed to settle their differences over the Iranian nuclear programme.

The July 20 deadline for a comprehensive agreement has long passed. Though the two sides reached an interim agreement last November — under which the sanctions on Iran were eased in exchange for halting the most sensitive part of the nuclear programme — a diplomatic breakthrough between the two sides is far from certain.

The new deadline for reaching a deal on the nuclear programme is November 24, so there is huge pressure on both sides to seal a deal.

The six world powers seek to compel Iran to scale down its nuclear programme to a point where it will not be able to produce nuclear weapons, while Tehran wants the West to lift the tough sanctions.

The trade-off is possible, but it entails a political will that the Iranian side is yet to demonstrate.

The two sides are still far apart on the core issues, particularly the scope of Tehran’s uranium enrichment capacity. 

The six world powers seek to convince Iran to put a cap on its centrifuge capacity. Iran, on the other hand, denies that it seeks to produce nuclear weapons and therefore refuses to reduce the number of centrifuges below the 19,000 it has now built.

Iranian officials insist that the Western demands are illogical. The Western powers seem adamant that nothing short of reducing the enrichment capacity will make them lift the sanctions.

Iran’s calculations are based on buying time, propping up its allies in the region (Syria’s President Bashar Assad and Lebanese militias Hizbollah), and lifting the sanctions while offering minimum concessions.

Tehran seeks to capitalise on the rise of the so-called Islamic State and wants to play on the fears of the West of the rise of terrorism in this part of the world.

Like Assad, Iran seeks to present itself as a natural ally in the global war on terrorism.

Many in Iran believe that they can reach a deal with the United States whereby Iran can achieve most of its objectives. But traditional US allies in the region suspect that Iran is a revisionist state and it would not hesitate to follow policies that can only destabilise the region.

The US is aware of the misgivings of its regional allies. Indeed, President Barack Obama tried to assure his allies that his administration would not reach a deal at their expense.

Not long ago, Obama failed to act when the Syrian regime used chemical weapons, thus crossing the “red lines” he imposed himself.

In this part of the world, an Iranian win is seen as a loss for others who feel threatened by its ulterior objectives in the region.

It remains to be seen whether Tehran will seize the opportunity and reach a deal. But with the shift in Iran’s position on the issue of enrichment capacity, it is hard to see how an agreement can be reached this time.

The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made it clear that he wanted to continue the enrichment capacity, but soon it will be clear to the Iranians that the status quo is not acceptable and that short of reaching a deal in the two months ahead, other scenarios may become realistic options.

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