Finding common ground

The foreign ministers of Russia, the United States, Turkey and Saudi Arabia found themselves at loggerheads over Syrian President Bashar Assad’s future role in Syria. Unlike Iran and Russia, the international community deeply believes that Assad has created an impossible dynamic for peace and therefore no peaceful settlement can be reached if it does not guarantee his departure. 

Unsurprisingly, the top diplomats — who met at a Vienna hotel on Friday — did not find common ground on how to resolve the five-year long Syrian crisis despite the fact that they all see Daesh as a major threat to everyone involved. And yet, Russia’s actions in Syria are inexplicable. If the threat is Daesh, then it follows that Moscow should have targeted the group from the get-go. Unfortunately, Russia’s military intervention in Syria can only prolong the crisis. It goes without saying that Moscow’s targeting of the rebels rather than Daesh can push the moderate groups to join Daesh in the end.

The only point they agreed on was to reconvene soon to further discuss a possible way out of the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sought to expand the negotiating group to include Iran, an attempt that was rebuffed by the American side. 

Russia’s calculations are very complex. Moscow has been trying to convince the United States and other Arab allies to cooperate with its campaign in Syria. Over the past weeks, President Vladimir Putin has been adamant in his position that the only way to defeat terrorism in Syria is by a joint effort with Assad’s troops at the forefront.

Lavrov’s attempt to get the US and the Arabs to buy into his position did not pay off. The Americans have been saying that Russia’s bombing campaign has not centred on Daesh as much as it has focused on propping up Assad in his battle with the moderate rebel groups. Over the past weeks, the vast majority of Russian sorties have targeted the CIA-backed rebels in a clear attempt to change the balance of forces on the ground.

It seems that Lavrov is using every trick in the book to reshuffle the cards in Syria. Hence, his demand to provide the Free Syrian Army (FSA) with air cover cannot be more sarcastic as it seeks to unseat Assad, the very man that the Russian forces have been supporting. The FSA dismissed the tricky offer. “Russia is bombing the Free Syrian Army and now it wants to cooperate with us, while it remains committed to Assad? We don’t understand Russia at all!” the spokesman for the Division 13 rebel group said.

Key to Russia’s strategy is to lure the US and key Arab countries to agree on a political process that centres around presidential and parliamentary elections in a war-torn Syria. Russian officials insist that Assad’s fate will only be decided by the Syrian people rather than outside players. To be sure, many analysts argue that Russia is not wedded to the notion of Assad remaining in power for good. Moscow, the argument goes, will scapegoat Assad, but only if it can secure its long-term objectives and interests in Syria.

Thus far, the Americans have ruled out strategic collaboration with Russia in Syria. The bone of contention is still about Assad himself. The common argument in the United States and indeed in key Arab countries is that a political solution is practically impossible while Assad remains in power. The US administration and these Arab states are standing their ground while trying to find a way to resolve the crisis once and for all. As Russia has failed to chalk up a military victory in Syria so far, the West and Arab countries are better off to work together to empower the moderate rebels in Syria. Any Russian victory in Syria may change the rules of the game dangerously. But let us not forget that Putin is a pragmatic leader. If he feels that holding on to Assad is a military embarrassment, he will scapegoat him for sure.

[email protected]