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A glimpse at the probable Iran deal

Feb 17,2015 - Last updated at Feb 17,2015

Explicit in US President Barack Obama’s approach to Tehran is his desire to reach a deal on the nuclear programme, hoping to leave his own legacy in the Middle East.

Over the past years, he left no stone unturned to lure the Iranians into a deal to cover his failures in almost all major challenges in this part of the world.

Were it not for the opposition in Washington and the Iranian manipulation, Obama might have signed a bad deal a while ago. Last November, negotiators set June 30 a final deadline for an agreement. 

But Western negotiators aim to get the deal sealed on the substance by next month. It remains to be seen whether Iran will be forthcoming, and if yes at what price.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, sent Obama a secret letter in response to an earlier secret letter sent by Obama. It is not a secret anymore that Obama’s letter offered a sort of Iranian-American cooperation in fighting the so-called Islamic State if a deal on the nuclear programme is reached.

Obama realised the importance of Iran in the region and, therefore, has been attempting to work with Tehran. 

Casting aside Obama’s lack of experience in foreign policy and his hesitant leadership on issues that matter to almost everyone in this region, a deal with Iran that ignores the vital interests of the traditional US allies will not resonate well in key countries in this region, chief among them Israel.

Its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is on record as vowing to fight such a deal and in his speech to the Congress, scheduled for early March, Netanyahu will try to undermine Obama. 

The Iranians are watching the developments in Washington. Although Obama is willing to reach a deal, his party, the Democrats, has lost the majority in the two Houses of Congress. Moreover, his critics in the Congress are suggesting imposing further sanctions on Iran. 

Obama threatened that he would veto any bill on sanction. He could have used the Congress to cow the Iranian leadership, but he chose not.

While the content of the new secret letter is still unknown, Khamenei said a few days ago that he would not reject a compromise. 

His statement may reflect the content of the letter and it seems that Khamenei agrees with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s intention to reach a compromise with the Western powers. 

His new position is set to tip the balance of power between hardliners at home, who oppose a deal, and Rouhani’s team, who thinks that Iran will be better off by reaching a deal with the West.

Rouhani’s team is concerned with the grave consequences of the sanctions, given Iran’s commitment abroad, especially in Syria. Having the sanctions lifted is a priority for Rouhani.

Obama has yet to understand how Iranians operate. First, Daesh, as IS is known in Arabic, is not posing a mortal threat to the Syrian regime. Hence, sending Khamenei a letter describing the shared interest in fighting IS may not be tempting, especially when Obama must have made it clear in the letter that such cooperation is contingent on a deal on the nuclear programme.

Second, Iranian hardliners are the ones who call the shots. The only way to force them to cooperate is by weakening them internally, and there is no better way than more painful sanctions to deliver that result.

In other words, Obama has been soft on Iran.

Far from being reassuring, Obama is hurting his allies in the Middle East. He views Iran as an important player, whether in a constructive or a negative way. But thus far, Iran has been a negative player that has helped perpetuate the misery of the Syrians.

Needless to say, a bad deal with Iran may vindicate the confrontationist hardliners in Iran.

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