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Hanging in balance

Sep 29,2014 - Last updated at Sep 29,2014

If left unchecked, the unmatched brutality of the Islamic State could threaten the stability of the Middle East beyond repair.

The manifestation of this kind of terror has led many countries to join the battle against it in both Iraq and Syria.

Undoubtedly, with Britain joining the international coalition, the ability of the anti-IS coalition to roll back the considerable threat posed by this terrorist group is better. And yet, some may ponder whether Syrian President Bashar Assad will be the potential beneficiary of this new development.

If this happens, it will be the most morally troubling outcome of the intervention in Syria.

Over the last few months, Assad’s troops have been losing grounds; now it appears as if the West were indirectly helping Assad.

But who should step in and who will fill the vacuum once IS gets defeated?

This question brings into discussion the role of the moderate Syrian opposition.

Supporting it with lethal weapons is undoubtedly long overdue. Therefore, the first step to be taken, along with striking at IS targets inside Syria, is to train and equip Syria’s moderate forces to enable them to stand up to the Syrian regime. The moderate opposition, if it can get its act together, can be the best alternative to both the so-called Islamic State and the Syrian regime.

I, like many observers, suspect that there will be a long time before the moderate opposition can be employed effectively. 

Even with the US Congress’ approval of President Barack Obama’s request to train a rebel force, it will take a long time before such force can take on IS and Assad’s troops.

Assad is looking for an opportunity to take part in the war on the IS. His calculation is simple: If the West fails to bring about the desired outcome in Syria, it can resort to Assad for more cooperation and coordinating, so he can rehabilitate his illegitimate rule.

Explicit in many statements made by senior Syrian officials is that Assad is ready to join the alliance against the terrorist groups.

From the get-go, Assad and his propaganda apparatus tried to frame the crisis differently. Rather than a genuine popular revolution against the Assad regime, this propaganda presents the situation as if it were only terrorists fighting a regime that is a key pillar to regional security.

So far, Assad’s attempt and calls to join the coalition fell on deaf ears. It will certainly be unthinkable for Western leaders to help rehabilitate leaders such as Assad. 

Therefore, their best option is the moderate Syrian opposition. But this is easier said than done. 

The Western leaders’ hesitation during the Syrian crisis only helped the regime and its regional allies to hold on and many opposition groups lost faith in the Western intentions.

Now, it is hard to avoid the realisation that there is nothing but a fragmented opposition.

According to Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, “Syria is a fragmented country, and most of these militias have a very town-centric quality. They’re based on clan structures and regional structures… none of them have really developed a national scope, except for the Islamist ones, like Al Qaeda and the ISIS”.

Landis also argues that the existence of a plethora of opposition groups can turn Syria into warlord fiefdoms.

Therefore, taking on IS is a must. But, perhaps, one should think of the post-IS era in Syria. Western leaders should step in and work meticulously to bring about a unified, trained opposition.

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