A police state in Egypt?

Barring a miracle, General Abdul Fattah Al Sisi is set to be voted president of Egypt in the current election.

While, if elected, Sisi is widely expected to further marginalise the Muslim Brotherhood, the possibility of a return to law and order is far from certain.

To begin with, Sisi masterminded the overthrow of the first democratically elected president in the modern history of Egypt. Of course, he was helped by the way president Mohamed Morsi — now in prison — mismanaged the country. Millions of Egyptians were appalled by Morsi’s attempt to bring the entire country in the brotherhood fold.

When millions took to the street to protest Morsi’s failure, Sisi took advantage and staged his coup.

Sisi is generally seen as the strong man of Egypt, one who would put the Egyptian house in order. But Egypt under Sisi is poised to revert to a security state.

The new ruling elite is almost similar to the old one. Therefore, the top priority of the new president will be to guarantee security in a country where there is still animosity between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood.

It remains to be seen how the Muslim Brotherhood will respond to the new developments.

Sisi knows very well that the difficult days lie ahead. To be able to deal with the Islamists’ challenge, he needs the people united behind him.

Having almost secured his position at the helm of Egyptian politics, he should be concerned about the election turnout.

If the turnout is considerably high, Sisi can claim that Egyptians are behind him. Moreover, a high turnout could vindicate his argument that the Egyptians supported the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from power.

Sisi is aware of the dilemma of having to restore order while simultaneously maintaining a democratic rule sought by the 2011 revolution.

He will need to use a firm grip on politics to assure that the Muslim Brotherhood is completely out of the game.

The Muslim Brotherhood, once the most important political force, has been dispersed and branded a terrorist movement. 

This may lead Morsi to use the law in a way that limits the liberties of Egyptians, a measure that may create new opponents.

The question is whether Sisi can restore order without antagonising the people that brought down the wall of fear when they rose against the Mubarak regime.

If Sisi understands his mandate to be rebuilding the wall of fear, he may face serious problem, not only with the Muslim Brotherhood but also with political forces that have been fighting for democracy, not another security state.

Still, there will be always those who argue that draconian rules are justified, given the need to restore security.

Many Egyptians keep their eyes on the Muslim Brotherhood supporters and the challenge they pose. Even prominent scholars such as Saad Eddin Ibrahim — who was jailed during the Mubarak regime — argue that Egypt needs a strong leader to assure stability, which in turn entails a central authority to maintain law and order.

Will this lead to a police state? Possibly. 

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