Russia in a diplomatic bind

It seems that the international community is not willing to turn a blind eye anymore to the atrocities committed by the Russian air strikes in Aleppo.

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not have a convincing narrative nor could he predict how the continuation of the bloodbaths in the rebel-held area in Aleppo will play out.

In a blistering condemnation, the undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs, Stephan O’Brien, laid the responsibility for the perpetuation of the misery in Aleppo at the Security Council’s door. In particular, he indicted Russia for being behind much of the indiscriminate bombing of eastern Aleppo. 

If O’Brien’s report is not enough, Russia has just lost its seat on the United Nations’ Human Rights Council, sign that the continuation of the war on Aleppo cannot go on unchecked.

Whatever Moscow tries to say, something happens to prove it wrong. If Russia maintains its disrespectful language vis-à-vis the UN, it will sure get in a diplomatic bind.

And yet, the Russian leadership is not clueless about its country’s increasing alienation in international forums. 

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in particular, does not seem gob smacked by the mounting criticism directed at his country. Yet, he sticks to his guns and insists that there is no other option other than keeping on the battle in Syria while looking for a diplomatic solution. 

But the Russian leadership has not commitment to any diplomatic solution that does not guarantee its victory in Syria.

Explicit in Russia’s deeds is contempt for the international community and the UN. 

Moscow has used its status as a permanent member to the UN Security Council to torpedo any effort to solve the Syrian crisis in a way that does not fit into Russia’s overall strategy.

Of course, Putin is a rational actor. His moves are based on his idea of the cost-benefit formula.

Thus far, Russia has not paid for its killing of Syrians. As long as Putin is having a free ride in Syria, he is not likely to budge.

This time around, the great powers that claim to support the right of the Syrian people to self-determination should realise that working within the Security Council is a recipe for paralysis because no matter what the Security Council decides, Russia can always cast a veto, thus nipping in the bud any positive initiative. 

Unlike countries that respect human rights, Russia is by no means forthcoming. Its leaders do not value human lives. Hence, there is a need to come up with a scheme outside the Security Council to check Russia.

All along its recent history, Russia proved resilient as long as it did not have to pay a cost. Therefore, short of placing a price tag on what the Russians are doing in Syria, the international community will be running the risk of providing Russia with the time and the opportunity to win the war militarily.

Moscow believes that talking about a diplomatic solution while simultaneously smashing the rebels is the best strategy to deceive the world about its ulterior motives. 

Sure, Russia’s mounting alienation will put it in a bind, but this is not what worries Moscow right now.

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