Will Assad survive?

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Syrian President Bashar Assad never thought of stepping down, even when many suspected that his days were numbered.

The international community may have put pressure on him, but he opted to buy time to decide the matter on the ground.

Not surprising, his most recent plan for re-election is widely seen as a sort of defiance, in contradiction to the American-Russian understandings reached during the Geneva I talks.

The growing rift between Russia and the United States over the Ukrainian crisis must have convinced Assad that Russia would not exert pressure on him. Actually, Russia’s assertiveness in the international community, particularly its defiance of the West, has encouraged Assad to go on with his plan to run for election.

Now, with no date set for the resumption of the Geneva talks and with the harsh verbal exchange between the West and Russia, it seems that Russia will not ask its ally in Damascus to compromise. 

Furthermore, Assad is bolstered by some military gains over the past few weeks.

Many analysts argue that Assad will stay around for some time to come.

Former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said a few days ago: “It is hard to imagine that Assad is going in the short term and even in the medium term, to lose control of the area between Aleppo south to Damascus and then over to the coast…. He will control that area — geographically it is maybe a fourth of the country…. But the other three-quarters will be under the control of different armed elements or contested among different armed elements.”

Ford’s reading should not be surprising. He cites three reasons for Assad’s ability to maintain power: the Syrian opposition has failed to assure the Alawites and other minority groups who support Assad; the financial and military support from Russia, Iran, Hizbollah and Iraq has helped Assad hang on to power; there is discord among the components of the Syrian opposition.

Though no date has been set for election, Assad seems willing to run, barring new developments in the few months to come.

Undoubtedly, the planned elections will put the Geneva peace talks at risk.

The UN, Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi said: “If there is an election, then my suspicion is that the opposition ... will probably not be interested in talking to the government.”

The opposition made it perfectly clear that Assad cannot be part of any transitional government.

The point, and herein lies the crux of the matter, is that Assad feels emboldened by the new developments in Ukraine. 

He suspects that the Russians will not cooperate with the American administration over Syria.

For this reason, Assad seeks to finish off the opposition’s forces. Paradoxically, Assad is being helped by the hesitant Obama administration, which has failed to make a difference on the ground.

Thus far, the Obama administration has been debating how to respond to the Syrian crisis. Time and again, President Barack Obama said that Assad would not be at the helm of the Syrian politics. Yet, the administration has failed to back up its rhetoric with substantive action.

The new developments in Ukraine and the lack of leadership on the part of the US president helped Assad to be assertive. Barring new developments, Assad is likely to run for election, thus burying the Geneva agreement and the likelihood of a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

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