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Netanyahu — ‘master manipulator’ who may be voted in office again

Feb 04,2015 - Last updated at Feb 04,2015

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud bloc is leading in opinion polls ahead of that country’s March 17 early general elections.

The latest poll gave right-wing Likud 26 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, while 24 seats were projected for its nearest rival, the allegedly centrist Zionist Camp, a partnership of convenience between Yitzhak Herzog’s Labour Party and Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah.

The latter had secured between two and three more seats than Likud in polls since the camp was formed last December.

The reason for Likud’s rise in the polls is Netanyahu’s manipulation of the security issue to refocus the public on Israeli “vulnerability” to attack.

Voters had been preoccupied with bread-and-butter economic issues. Netanyahu achieved his end by orchestrating an Israeli-Hizbollah tit-for-tat exchange that killed six Hizbollah fighters, an Iranian brigadier and two Israeli soldiers.

Under Netanyahu’s overall command, on January 18, Israeli drones or aircraft attacked a two-car convoy driving in the northern sector of the ceasefire line between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, near Quneitra, killing and wounding those in the convoy.

On January 28, Hizbollah retaliated by firing anti-tank rounds at two unarmoured Israeli vehicles driving along the road in the Shebaa Farms area, next to the ceasefire line between Lebanon and Israel, a highly sensitive location. This is where the two Israeli soldiers died and seven were injured.

When ordering the Quneitra operation, Netanyahu knew full well that Hizbollah would be obliged to retaliate, and he was well aware that there could be Israeli fatalities and injured.

Among those killed in Israel’s Quneitra strike were Hizbollah field commander Mohammad Issa, Jihad Mughniyeh, son of former Hizbollah military planner Imad Mughniyeh, assassinated by Israel, and Brigadier General Muhammad Ali Allahdadi, an officer in the Quds force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

Commenting on the retaliatory operation, Hizbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Israel’s Quneitra strike breached the “rules of engagement” tacitly accepted by the movement and Israel.

He stated: “We carried out a precise tit-for-tat action. Broad daylight action for broad daylight action, missile for missile, two cars hit for two cars hit.”

While Hizbollah fighters routinely track Israeli patrols along Shebaa Farms road across the ceasefire line and can, at any time, mount an operation against such patrols, one must look at possible reasons for Israel’s successful targeting of high profile figures in the Hizbollah convoy.

Firstly, this particular incident could have been a lucky strike. Secondly, there were reports that the Iranian brigadier had spoken on his mobile phone, enabling the Israelis to identify at least one passenger in the convoy and to surmise that he would be accompanied by other high value targets.

Israeli drones were said to be hovering in the area before the strikes.

Thirdly, Hizbollah has recently uncovered Israeli moles within its ranks and senior command. A mole could have informed Israel about the convoy.

And, finally, members of Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat Al Nusra and its allied forces could have notified the Israelis that a convoy carrying very important persons was travelling in the area.

Syrian government forces, bolstered by Hizbollah, hold only the northern sector along the ceasefire line. About two-thirds of the line is under the control of anti-government fundamentalists led by Jabhat Al Nusra.

Whenever there are exchanges between the sides that send stray shells into the Israeli-occupied Golan, Israel hits army positions.

Such actions favour the Jabhat, which, according to Israeli commentators, receives “humanitarian assistance” from Israel, including ammunition and medical care for its wounded.

Some Israeli analysts argue that Israel is trying to transform Jabhat into a surrogate militia, like the “South Lebanon Army”, an Israeli-sponsored Lebanese militia that bolstered Israeli forces in its south Lebanon occupation zone from the 1970s until Israel withdrew in 2000.

Whatever the case, Netanyahu has benefitted doubly from the tit-for-tat strikes.

He gained credit for hitting both Hizbollah and Iran in the Quneitra attack, and Hizbollah’s response propelled security to the top of the election campaign agenda.

The economy, the high cost of living and inequality in Israel are forgotten for the time being.

Ahead of the exchange, Israeli analysts warned that a clash with Hizbollah could very well return the Likud and Netanyahu to power.

He must assume the “clash” will continue to preoccupy voters until they enter polling booths on March 17.

Before then, however, Netanyahu can count on his other pre-election manipulation to deliver a further boost to his prospects.

This is his appearance before both houses of the US Congress, where he is expected to maintain his security-first line by calling on legislators to adopt a tough line against Iran at the very time envoys from the Obama administration, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany are negotiating with Tehran over restrictions on its nuclear programme that would prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weaponry or attaining “break out”, the equipment and technical capabilities to build bombs.

Netanyahu made use of Israel’s ambassador to the US, Ron Dermer, to lobby Republican House Speaker John Boehner to issue an invitation to address Congress.

Boehner went ahead with the offer without consulting either the White House, which normally is in charge of visits to Washington by heads of state and government, or the Democratic Party, infuriating both.

While insulting the Democrats may not be welcome among Israeli voters, brushing off President Barack Obama — who has been demonised in Israel — is popular. Therefore, Netanyahu can gain points on the two issues: his hard line towards Iran, seen by Israelis as an existential threat, and insulting Obama by violating protocol.

There is no doubt that Netanyahu is a master manipulator who may well manipulate himself into a new term in office.

But manipulation is not what Israelis, Palestinians and citizens of the international community need at a time this region is menaced by Islamic State and Jabhat fighters, and other aggressive jihadist organisations.

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