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US-Iran crisis: Diplomacy might not solve it, but war is not an option!

Sep 15,2019 - Last updated at Sep 15,2019

President Donald Trump outlined his vision of the Iranian nuclear crisis with the veto he raised in the face of Tehran: "You can’t have a nuclear weapon. You want to talk? Good," he said, closing the door on the nuclear bomb, a project that raises the fears of Israel, Iran's traditional enemy, and the fears of Iran's regional neighbours.

Trump has kept the door open for diplomacy to play its role, and through its channels, to hold a series of marathon negotiations that may lead to a reasonable formula to end the crisis, but according to observers, this step may be enough to soften the atmosphere but may not be enough to defuse the crisis, and both countries are well aware that the tension between them is like dancing in a minefield, and in the most sensitive areas of the world.

Everyone knows that the escalation of events, such as the seizure of tankers and the downing of drones, not to mention the fierce media war between them and the constant threats of Iran to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, or the US threat to direct a pre-emptive strike on Iran, might lead to a heated confrontation that will put the entire region in grave danger, directly affecting oil supplies.

President Hassan Rouhani gave a soft-spoken approval to Trump's call for direct negotiations between the two countries, saying he agreed with any move if it was in the interest of the Iranian people. However, the Iranian leadership has received this call with some scepticism and uneasiness, arguing that there is no credibility in the American proposal and that it does not trust it at all despite the convictions of reformers. 

Anyway, the Iranian president retracted the idea of a direct meeting with Trump, stressing that there will be a meeting only after the lifting of sanctions on Iran, and this decline comes despite the French announcement of the possibility of a meeting between the two presidents, which can be explained by the fact that Rouhani is under great internal pressure from conservatives.

It seems that there is an internal conflict between the conservatives and the reformists in Iran, which could put the negotiating team in a difficult situation, and the reformists, to whom President Rouhani is closer, will be in a more embarrassing position than they were during the negotiations with the “P5+1” (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany), which were not at the level of ambition of the Iranian people, according to the fundamentalists, who reject any contact with the United States or the West. 

In any case, no decision will be taken by any party without the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei exclusively.

All indicators confirm that there is no alternative to the diplomatic option for both Washington and Tehran, and that there will be no winner in the war. Perhaps conditions within Iran and within the United States impose a meeting between the two presidents in order to break the ice between the two countries.

We must realise that the ghost of the first Gulf War still haunts the Iranians, who paid the most expensive price for eight years, and that the third Gulf War dug painful scars in the memories of the American people, and both peoples are still groaning from the effects of those wars.

Perhaps the international community looks forward to a forthcoming meeting between Rouhani and Trump similar to the Kim-Trump meeting, although everyone understands how difficult it is for the negotiations to solve problems that have spanned more than four decades, problems that were titled "Greatest Devil" and "Axis of Evil"!

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