Abbas’ bid at UN

There is a flurry of diplomatic activities centring on the Palestine-Israel conflict in Europe this week, amid signs that the United States is trying to revive stalled peace talks as a way to dissuade Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas from pressing ahead with a decision to present a draft resolution to the UN Security Council, calling for an end to the Israeli occupation within a two-year time frame.

US Secretary of State John Kerry was in Rome Sunday to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to discuss, among other issues, ways “to prevent the situation between Israelis and the Palestinians from degrading further”, according to the Russian official.

The talks also covered Syria and the Ukraine, but there was little information on what the two discussed in regard to the Middle East conflict.

On Monday, Kerry met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who said before leaving Israel that his government “is adamantly opposed to any unilateral step at the UN Security Council to impose a solution or set a UN deadline for withdrawal from the West Bank”.

He rejected calls to withdraw to the 1967 borders, saying that doing so will bring radical Islam to the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

Upon meeting Kerry, he said that Israel expects the US to veto the Palestinian UN bid.

Kerry had tried before to revive peace talks between the two sides, but failed after unfruitful nine months of indirect negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Netanyahu government continued to approve plans to build and fatten new settlements in East Jerusalem and in other areas of the West Bank.

Tension in Jerusalem rose after the brutal murder of young Palestinian Mohammad Abu Khudeir, last July, following the abduction and killing of three Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

The incident fuelled confrontations between Palestinians and Israelis and gave Netanyahu the excuse to launch a monthlong aerial and ground assault on Gaza, which claimed the lives of over 2,200 Palestinians and left tens of thousands homeless.

Repeated incursions on Al Harm Al Sharif compound by Jewish extremists, protected by Israeli soldiers, heightened tensions and strained Jordan’s relations with Israel.

In addition, Palestinians condemned Netanyahu’s push to pass the controversial Nationality Law through the Israeli Knesset, which has now been dissolved. 

The proposed law recognises Israel as an exclusive homeland for the Jewish people, rendering non-Jews, including Israeli Arabs, non-citizens.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman proposed giving Israeli Arabs economic incentives to move to Palestinians territories.

The Palestinian Authority, which refuses to recognise Israel as a Jewish homeland, says the proposed law will bury the right of return of Palestinian refugees and threatens to transfer millions of Arab Israelis to Palestinian territories.

Jordan, too, has qualms about the law, because it derails attempts to save the two-state solution and may result in the transfer of millions of Palestinians to the East Bank.

In the aftermath of the killing by Israeli soldiers of Palestinian minister Ziad Abu Ein last week near Jerusalem, Abbas said the PA will suspend security coordination with Israel and move towards signing international agreements, including the Rome Treaty that allows the Palestinian state to become member of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

For now Kerry, who was scheduled to meet his European counterpart in Paris on Tuesday, will try to coordinate a united position that puts pressure on Israel but prevents the Palestinians from going to the Security Council.

On Wednesday, he will meet with chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat in London to convey this position.

Washington may back a French call to hold a peace conference and may even accept to pass a toned down resolution that does not commit to a time frame for Israeli withdrawal.

Jordan, a non-permanent member of the Security Council, will circulate the Arab-Palestinian draft resolution to members on Wednesday.

If Kerry’s efforts to convince the Palestinians to withdraw or amend the draft resolution fail, it is almost certain that Washington will veto the resolution if it comes to a vote.

But that may come at a cost. The mood in Europe is now favourable to the Palestinian cause, after the symbolic and non-binding recognition of the Palestinian state by French, Irish, Spanish and British parliaments in the past few weeks.

Furthermore, the American veto will deal a blow to Arab members of the US-led coalition now fighting the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. It will further inflame anti-US sentiments in the Arab and Muslim worlds and may give jihadists much needed moral support.

But where does that leave Abbas?

He may accept a US-European compromise and water down the draft resolution if he gets assurances that solid negotiations will be restarted.

That will not be a popular move in the occupied territories where frustration with negotiations has reached unprecedented levels. He may decide to go ahead with a vote and risk facing a US veto, but that will weaken his position with the Americans and distance him from European governments.

He may decide that his last resort is to take his case to the ICC and put Israel under the pressure of international sanctions.

With Israel’s elections slated for March 17 and the possibility that the far right will emerge victorious, there is little hope that a peaceful settlement remains a viable option.