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Abbas’ options

Jan 06,2015 - Last updated at Jan 06,2015

The failure last week of a Palestinian/Arab bid to pass a resolution at the UN Security Council, essentially setting a deadline to end the Israeli occupation and allowing for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, has triggered a series of reactions that threaten to drive the two sides further apart and push them to new, untested grounds.

The draft resolution failed because the US exerted pressure on member nations not to support it. Nigeria’s surprise abstention is a case in point.

The US veto notwithstanding, the resolution could not secure the necessary nine votes. It was a decisive defeat for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and for the Arab countries that supported the draft.

Unlike his attempt at the UN General Assembly in November 2012, when Palestine was recognised as a non-member state, this time Abbas rolled the dice and lost.

As a result, the Palestinian president was forced to carry out his threat to sign no less than 20 international treaties, setting the course for the possible prosecution of Israeli officials and officers for war crimes and for illegal acts in the occupied territories, such as settlement building.

He had resisted such move for some time, hoping that the US would find ways to salvage peace negotiations. Now he finds himself on a path that is unlikely to succeed in putting pressure on Israel or allow for a new political initiative to take place.

Israel, on the other hand, promised to take punitive actions against the Palestinian Authority and against Abbas himself.

But such course is risky. Israel cannot afford to cripple the PA and Abbas will hesitate to disband the authority at this crucial stage.

No one knows the outcome of the current phase of brinkmanship.

What one knows for sure is that America’s two decade exclusive oversight of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians has come to naught.

The Palestinians are in a worse position today than they were on the eve of the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Since then they have seen most of their gains under that agreement dissipate.

Blaming the Palestinians for wasting one opportunity after the other is both unethical and untrue.

With no other options available to them, the Palestinian leadership held on to the prospect that negotiations will eventually deliver the two-state solution.

Only recently, and as Israel aggressively expanded Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank while imposing a long list of new conditions on the Palestinians, did Abbas give up on talks with Israel.

His strategy was to take his case back to the United Nations and seek the backing of the international community for the two-state solution.

While failing to provide a viable alternative, Washington warned against the consequences of his actions. But the international mood was sympathetic to his cause. Many parliaments in Europe voted for the symbolic recognition of the Palestinian state.

What Abbas believed was that his gambit at the UN may force Washington and the West to alter their policy and bring pressure to bear on Israel. His calculations were wrong.

America’s historic bias in favour of Israel was not about to change.

Palestinian efforts to “internationalise” their cause were being thwarted not by Israel, but by the US.

It is a shameful position that clearly serves the interest of Israel’s right-wing leaders. It also delivers the final blow to the two-state solution as a peaceful way to end more than six decades of occupation.

What is also shameful is that the US is willing to offend its Arab allies, by derailing the draft resolution, without offering a new roadmap. Such position will embolden Israel’s extremists as they prepare to go the polls in March.

The new government will not hesitate to adopt unilateral steps to impose a new reality on the Palestinians. Such steps will only further destabilise the region.

Abbas is thinking of going to the UN Security Council once again. But it is a long shot that is unlikely to change things on the ground.

His options are limited and the risks entailed in challenging Israel in international forums are massive.

It is wrong to believe that he has the initiative. Israel’s reaction, especially in the occupied territories, will put his leadership under scrutiny.

While he can count on symbolic Arab support as he wages his diplomatic offensive, the reality is that he is on his own.

On the other hand, Israeli actions and Washington’s indifference will not alter the facts on the ground. Israel is an occupying power and its policies of annexation and collective punishment will eventually drive Palestinians to despair.

Discrediting Abbas will not serve Israeli interests, in the long run, and will trigger popular opposition to the occupation in the form of a new Intifada.

Perhaps this is the last card left for Abbas to play.

 

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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