Ceasefire first

More than four years after the breakout of the Syrian crisis, which has caused the death of no less than 300,000 people and displaced millions of others in and outside the warn-torn country, the world is suddenly discovering that Syria has become a global moral and ethical challenge.

The harrowing image of the lifeless body of three-year-old Kurdish Syrian boy that washed up on a Turkish beach last week has awakened people and leaders to the epic-like dimension of the humanitarian crisis involving Syrians.

This coincided with the release of shocking images of thousands of mainly Syrian migrants making their arduous journey into Europe, which after a brief hesitation finally opened its borders amid debates over the limits of European tolerance towards asylum seekers.

The influx of Syrian refugees, mainly from Turkey, is the biggest crisis the European Union has faced in decades.

The majority of these will never return to Syria, posing a new political and socio-economic challenge for a continent battling austerity, xenophobia and scepticism over its future as a viable economic and political entity.

Pressure is mounting on countries like Canada and Australia to receive more migrants, while host nations like Jordan and Lebanon are sending distress signals over lack of funds to provide essential services to millions of refugees.

In the absence of a political solution to the Syrian conflict, the influx of Syrian migrants will continue.

As they make their perilous journey into Europe, the illegal human trafficking network, which extends from Turkey to Libya and beyond, will cause the death of countless victims.

It is inconceivable that the Turkish authorities are unaware of the activities of traffickers who are smuggling hundreds of Syrian refugees into Europe on daily basis.

Is it possible that Ankara is facilitating the migration of thousands of refugees to pressure the US and Europe to give Turkey the go-ahead to set-up a safe zone inside Syrian territory?

Such a zone would allow Turkey to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Syrians who have become a burden on its resources.

Syrians are leaving their homes to escape regime bombardment and Daesh atrocities. No city, town or province is spared the violence and systematic destruction that has been going on for years.

Jordan and Lebanon are no longer able to receive more refugees. The only way out is through Turkey and those who cross the border do not go to refugee camps, but make the risky journey to Greece and from there into Europe.

Heightening military action against Daesh while the regime and the opposition are fighting each other is unlikely to stop the flow of refugees. Syria has become one large battleground with very few safe havens.
The regime must stop the indiscriminate killing of its people. But despite talk about a possible political process, the signs are not hopeful.

Russia is said to be increasing its military aid to the regime at a time President Vladimir Putin is mulling introducing a new peace initiative. But his priority at this stage is to gather support for his plan that would see countries join the regime in fighting the militants.

In Moscow’s view, this is not the time to discuss the future of Bashar Assad.

The failure to build up consensus for a political solution in Syria hinges on one major question: Where does Assad fit in the proposed transitional government?

This has become a Gordian knot that is preventing a solution.

Reacting to Moscow’s renewed support for the regime, the US is considering ways to beef up backing moderate opposition forces.

Britain and France are also preparing to increase their involvement in the coalition in order to strike militant positions in Syria.

Backing different sides in the conflict will only prolong the life of the Syrian crisis. And by extension, it will deepen the humanitarian aspect, forcing more Syrians to leave their country to seek asylum in Europe.

US-Russian rivalry in Syria will eventually destroy this country. The fact is that neither the regime nor the rebels will be able to govern Syria as a united entity.

The regime is on the brink of collapse and its army is both weak and demoralised. Over the past few days it lost control of most of the Sweida province, following the assassination of a key Druze leader, for which residents blamed Damascus.

Instead of arming the regime and the rebels, the US and Russia should work for a long truce to precede negotiations for a political solution.

In the meantime, the coalition could focus its attention on fighting Daesh and driving it out of areas under its control.

Liberated areas can be administered by a joint Arab force supported by the world community.

This is the only possible way to save Syria from disintegrating and allow for the repatriation of refugees.

A ceasefire between the regime and opposition forces in Syria must become the main objective of regional and world powers.

Assad’s future would be decided much later, when the militants are defeated and most refugees in neighbouring host countries have been repatriated.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.