To defeat Daesh

Daesh is witnessing a rebirth at a time when it should be diminishing or disintegrating. 

After months of relentless US-led air strikes against its positions in Syria and Iraq, the jihadist organisation is still not showing visible signs of weakness.

In the last two weeks, the fanatic group has made a number of spectacular gains on the ground, defying all speculation that it was on the run. 

In Iraq, the group took control of Ramadi, the capital of Al Anbar governorate, almost without resistance as the army and police pulled out of the city under dubious circumstances.

That puts Daesh militants at about 100 kilometres west of Baghdad.

Iraqi officials admitted that the sudden withdrawal from Ramadi by Iraqi forces was “unjustified” and US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter accused the army of lacking the will to fight.

Daesh militants have moved closer to Al Habaniyah military base, which is considered a gateway to Baghdad. 

Tens of thousands of Anbar residents fled to the capital while Iran-led Shiite militias moved into the province in preparation for a bloody showdown.

The outcome of this battle will be crucial in many ways, but one thing is assured: it will deepen the Shiite-Sunni divide that has been crippling Iraqi politics for years.

Meanwhile, Daesh fighters were able to capture the strategic Syria city of Palmyra, with its world heritage ruins, as Syrian government forces pulled back suddenly even after repulsing the first wave of attack.

Few days later, Daesh militants took over Al Walid border point, allowing them to link large swathes of territory between eastern Syria and western Iraq.

The fall of Al Walid puts the jihadists less than 70 kilometres north of Jordan’s border with Iraq.

US President Barack Obama described the fall of Ramadi as “a tactical setback”, while the Pentagon admitted that the Iraqi army was in no mood to fight.

Theoretically, the Popular Mobilisation Force (PMF), the Iraqi army and local tribesmen, assisted by the international coalition, will eventually overrun the jihadists in Ramadi. But the reality is that the Iraqi army is weak and the political leadership of the country is under pressure.

This underlines the sectarian politics that grip Iraq today. The country’s Sunnis have serious doubts about the government of Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi’s ability to keep Iraq united, achieve reconciliation and limit Iranian influence.

In Syria, the fall of Palmyra is seen a serious blow to the regime of President Bashar Assad.

The militants now have access to most of Syria’s badia, extending as far south as Daraa and the Jordanian borders.

It also means that they are less than 200 kilometres from Damascus.

Whether the Syrian regime has allowed them to take over Palmyra is not clear. But the reality is that Daesh is now in control of almost 50 per cent of Syria. 

And last week’s suicide attack at a mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia, which was claimed by Daesh, is a sure sign that the militant group is expanding and finding sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria.

Daesh’s influence now extends beyond these countries and the group has become a serious threat in Egypt, Libya and Algeria.

In Iraq, sectarian confrontations provided the militants with the necessary environment to expand and recruit locals in Sunni areas.

Unless a new accord is reached allowing all Iraqis to become part of a non-sectarian political process without foreign interference, the militants will continue to be a major threat to Iraq’s unity and stability.

Failure to do this will make Daesh continue to present itself as an ally of Iraq’s Sunnis, which will pave the way for a de facto partition of the country.

In Syria, the situation is different. The regime, which has lost territory to the opposition in the north, east and south, will now try to defend the capital and the coastal plain.

Despite the fiery rhetoric, it is clear that its army is exhausted and demoralised.

Daesh will maintain control of recently gained territory and the coming showdown will be between its fighters and those of other opposition groups.

Syria is slowly being divided into areas of influence with various groups fighting for control of territory.

The international community must take these developments seriously. 

Daesh has not been defeated or weakened, and is on its way to destabilise the entire region.

A new strategy is needed to confront this menace, which requires finding political solutions to the conflicts gripping Iraq and Syria.

This will need regional coordination as well as international determination to commit additional resources and perhaps troops on the ground.

Daesh’s leadership is using the conflicts in these two countries to its advantage. It is time for the world to step in to resolve them.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.