Preventing Iraq’s breakup

Iraq has been a hostage of a deep political crisis since it was invaded and occupied by the United States and Britain in 2003.

For over a decade, this religiously and ethnically diversified country has suffered under a dysfunctional political system that was abused by Iran and its proxies and tolerated by the West.

Aside from the continuous pillaging of Iraq, where hundreds of billions of dollars ended up in the pockets of influential players, corrupt officers and foreign companies, the political system had disenfranchised the Sunnis and triggered bloody sectarian conflicts.

Eight years under former prime minister Nuri Al Maliki’s rule brought the country to the brink of collapse. Iraq today is a failed state controlled by self-serving politicians with various agendas, heavily in debt, with a non-functioning economy and facing an existential threat in the form of Daesh.

Last week, that crisis deepened as parliament rejected Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi’s proposal for a government of technocrats, which represented an attempt to depart from the political quota system.

Following that, a number of deputies voted to oust Speaker Selim Al Jabouri, but the legality of that move, which would have paved the way for firing Abadi as well, was in doubt.

As backroom negotiations went into the night in an attempt to avoid political chaos, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr issued a statement giving parliament 72 hours to vote in a new Cabinet.

His followers staged a sit-in outside the Green Zone, waiting for further orders.

Now various players are trying to hold an emergency session of parliament, under Jabouri, to allow Abadi to present a new Cabinet.

It is clear that Baghdad is witnessing an unprecedented crisis that threatens to unravel the country altogether.

Doing away with the political quota system is a step in the right direction. That system has been abused in a way that weakened the country’s institutions, allowed for corruption and graft to spread, and alienated the country’s Sunnis.

It also paved the way for the emergence of largely Shiite militias, some under the direct command of Iranian officers, who have committed human rights abuses against the Sunnis.

Furthermore, the dysfunctional system has marginalised the Iraqi army, which has been attempting to recapture large areas under the control of Daesh in Al Anbar province.

And as things stand now, many doubt the ability of the army to launch a much-anticipated campaign to liberate Mosul, in northern Iraq.

The plague of sectarian confrontations has been masterminded by Iran and its proxies. But one cannot exempt the US, which carried out regime change and enforced a controversial political system, from responsibility for the destruction of Iraq. 

The birth of Daesh and its expansion in the past few years is a direct result of America’s myopic policies and Iran’s direct meddling in Iraq’s affairs.

If Iraqi politicians fail to find a new political formula that restores people’s trust and defuses sectarian tensions, in addition to holding those who participated in pilfering the country, and deepening ethnic and sectarian divides accountable, Iraq as we know today will cease to exist.

The Kurds will be the first to distance themselves from the central government in Baghdad and carry out their historical ambition of independence.

The breaking up of Iraq along ethnic and sectarian fault lines is more plausible today than at any other time. If that chaotic scenario takes place, its geopolitical reverberations will be felt across the region.

Preserving the unity and territorial integrity of Iraq is a direct responsibility of the Arab world at a time when countries in this region are facing possible disintegration. But this is easier said than done.

Arab countries are engaged in internal challenges and their contribution to resolving the crises in Libya and Syria has been limited.

A more broader coalition, along the lines that Saudi Arabia is proposing, will bring pressure to bear on capitals that still carry influence in Iraq, such as Tehran and Washington.

Iran has every reason to keep Iraq weak and divided. This is part of implementing its regional agenda and Iranian officials have made no secret of their goal to extend their influence from Tehran to Baghdad, and from there to Damascus and Beirut.

This is why its designs for Iraq must be stopped before it is too late.

The lessons drawn from Iraq should be remembered as America and Russia seek to implement a political solution in war-torn Syria.

And this is why only Syrians should be involved in writing a new constitution for their country that excludes political quotas that brought Iraq to its downfall.

Saving Iraq now rests with a small political group that has no outside agendas or loyalty to outside powers.

A federal and democratic Iraq that does away with political quotas, and severs ties with Iran and its proxies is a tall order at this stage, but it is the only path forward.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.