Prodding attack

It is not clear whether Israel knew it was targeting top Hizbollah and Iranian military brass that were in a convoy on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

Sunday’s helicopter strike killed at least seven people, including top commanders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and senior Hizbollah officers, according to news reports. One of the victims was the son of Hizbollah military leader Imad Mughniyeh who was assassinated in Damascus in 2008.

Back then, the Lebanese Shiite faction accused Israel of carrying out the assassination and vowed to retaliate.

This week’s incident was the most serious since Hizbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in 2006, precipitating a bloody war between the two sides that lasted for more than a month.

Confrontation between the two sworn enemies ebbed since Hizbollah became involved in the Syrian civil war on the side of the regime.

During the last four years, Israel carried out a number of missile strikes in Syrian territory, targeting weapons storehouses and convoys said to be bound for the group in Lebanon.

Hizbollah officials described the latest attack as provocative and vowed to avenge the killing of high-level officials. They told As Safir newspaper in Beirut on Monday that retaliation against Israel “is inevitable”, though they added that “we will not act out of emotion”.

Only a few days ago, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah told Al Mayadeen TV that Hizbollah was ready for confrontation with Israel and that the group was in possession of Iranian missiles with a range of over 200 kilometres, capable of reaching all Israel.

He added that the next war will not be limited to firing rockets, but will involve land incursions in the Galilee. He also admitted that his organisation had apprehended a senior official for spying for Israel.

Nasrallah warned against any further Israeli provocations.

Sunday’s attack was exactly the kind of provocation that could lead to the next war between Israel and the shiite group.

This time the faceoff will take place in the midst of a volatile geopolitical situation in the region.

The war in Syria and the political instability in Lebanon will be major factors. Iranian military presence in Syria could also heighten tensions and widen the conflict.

The mere presence of Hizbollah in the Golan will raise questions about the group’s military objectives and if it was preparing to carry out attacks against Israel from the Syrian side.

In Israel, on the other hand, where the army has raised the alert level, the possibility of eruption of hostilities with Hizbollah is being taken seriously.

The Lebanese group has proved to be a tough adversary and its missile capabilities are a source of worry for the Israeli military institution.

The question is why would Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu take such a risk two months before the Israeli public heads to the polls?

A war with Hizbollah will prove dissimilar from an attack on Gaza and Hamas. The dynamics are different, and the political and military realties will dictate a diverse scenario.

The killing of senior Hizbollah and Iranian officials is a direct challenge to Nasrallah. The group is yet to avenge the killing of Imad Mughniyeh, and Sunday’s attack will put pressure on the group to carry out its threats.

But Hizbollah is also aware of the repercussions of going into a new war with Israel. It realises that this time both sides will find themselves entangled in an open conflict whose outcome is not assured.

In Israel’s case, an attack on its populated centres and strategic assets will force an unprecedented response. Lebanon in its entirety will pay a heavy price as a result.

Hizbollah is under pressure both in Lebanon and abroad. Its participation in the Syrian war has triggered harsh criticism from various Lebanese power centres.

It remains the prime suspect in the international probe into the murder of former prime minister Rafik Al Hariri.

Its possession of a huge arsenal of weapons is a contentious issue for most Lebanese. And its close ties to Iran have not endeared it to Sunni regimes in the region.

Hizbollah has lost much of its political capital in the Arab world since it sided with the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria and supported the Shiite uprising in Bahrain. 

Nasrallah has tried to regain popularity by underlying the group’s historical enmity with Israel and its solidarity with Hamas and other militant Palestinian organisations.

It is unlikely that Israel would want to go to war with Hizbollah, few months after launching a deadly assault on Gaza.

The Israeli public is weary but Netanyahu could be using this to serve his own political interests.

Challenging Hizbollah will put him in a strong position, especially among extremists and right-wing forces. But if his gambit fails and war does break out, Israel’s political map could change dramatically.

The most likely scenario is that Hizbollah will bide its time and wait for an opportune moment to retaliate, perhaps outside Israel’s borders.

Nasrallah admitted that he had miscalculated Tel Aviv’s response when his people kidnapped the two Israeli soldiers in 2006. This time he will make sure that his retaliation will not provoke a direct reaction.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.