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Sisi’s challenge

Feb 04,2015 - Last updated at Feb 04,2015

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi is the first to admit that the war on terror will be long and painful.

In the wake of last week’s deadly attacks against his troops in Arish, in northern Sinai, Egyptians are accepting the fact that winning the war against Islamist radicals will not be easy.

Months after the military launched the most stringent campaign against terrorists belonging to Ansar Bait Al Maqdis, the group remains strong and capable of hitting back.

This security crisis has become the biggest challenge to the Egyptian president since he took office last year.

Egypt is still reeling from the tumultuous events that hit it, starting with the January 25 uprising, four years ago, which brought down the regime of former president Hosni Mubarak.

The rise to and fall from power of the Muslim Brotherhood later on triggered a series of upsets and polarised Egyptian society.

The military intervention that deposed president Mohamed Morsi and the subsequent banning of the Muslim Brotherhood may have enjoyed popular backing, but its effect on the political stability of Egypt has been deep.

While lacking public support, the Islamist movement continues to dare the regime. Regrettably it has resorted to violence and terror, giving the new rule the mandate it needs to hit it hard.

Today Sisi is fighting on a number of fronts: political, economic and social.

The rebuilding of Egypt’s state institutions is not complete and the challenge the Islamists pose to his rule, although minimal, is testing the country’s readiness to complete the roadmap and achieve some sort of reconciliation.

But the military’s failure to quash the armed rebellion in northern Sinai threatens to disrupt Sisi’s efforts.

He accused foreign powers of backing the terrorists.

The military has resorted to controversial measures in Sinai in an attempt to weaken the terrorists. Most of these measures proved to be unpopular with the residents of the peninsula.

Many Egyptians are aware that in the long run, pacifying Sinai will require much more than military intervention. 

Northern Sinai was left undeveloped by the old regime for decades, resulting in high rates of unemployment and poverty.

Its remoteness from Cairo and proximity to Gaza may have alienated its residents and helped fuel suspicions in its military governors.

Now the militant group, which declared its allegiance to the so-called Islamic State group, is posing a threat to the entire country.

It is likely that militants are getting outside help as well.

The instability in Libya, which shares long borders with Egypt, facilitated the smuggling of men and weapons into Sinai.

It is also possible that the same is happening on the Rafah-Gaza border through an intricate network of tunnels.

But Sisi must tread carefully as well.

Punishing the people of northern Sinai through severe measures will add to an already tense relationship between them and the government.

The long-term solution to Sinai’s problem rests on executing ambitious development plans that will change the economic and social realities of its residents.

But for now, Sisi must win the war against the militants without alienating the people of Sinai. At the same time, he must find ways to restore confidence in the political process, and distance his rule from the old regime.

It is ironic that while many individuals associated with the old regime have been freed, a number of young men and women associated with the January 25 uprising is still in jail.

Most have nothing to do with the Muslim Brotherhood; the majority supported the military intervention to end Morsi’s rule.

Sisi remains popular among Egyptians, but the country is yet to overcome economic hardships and respond to the demands of its youth for more political freedom and reforms.

In addition, Sisi must also address the challenge of reconciliation with moderate Islamists forces that continue to enjoy support among many Egyptians.

Refusing to accept this fact will only drive young men and women associated with these forces underground.

It is important to realise that the war in Sinai has nothing to do with opening up to moderate Islamists.

Stability in Egypt will come through reconciling with these forces and including them in the political process.

For decades Egypt had suffered from the rule of oligarchs backed by the military. Sisi must find ways to ensure that the country moves beyond this and begins a new chapter based on democracy, respect for human rights, pluralism and transparency.

The war in Sinai should not come at the expense of an agenda that fulfils the goals of the January 25 uprising.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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