Uncertainty after AKP’s upset

The political fallout from this week’s Turkish parliamentary elections will have dramatic effects on the country’s internal and regional policies.

The electorate snubbed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party for the first time in more than 12 years, curtailing the dominance of Justice and Development Party (AKP) in parliament and in effect derailing Erdogan’s ambitions to rewrite the constitution and change Turkey’s political system.

AKP remains the country’s largest party, but it has failed to win enough seats to stay in power. It will have to form a coalition government or, failing to do so, the president will have to call for early elections before the end of this year.

Election results have stunned Erdogan and his supporters, sending a message that the electorate has become weary of AKP’s dominance and the president’s often authoritarian style of government.

One of the major game changers was the economy, which has been slowing at alarming rates in the last few years; the country grew by almost 7 per cent a year between 2002 and 2007 but has averaged roughly 3 per cent since 2012. 

But that is not all. Analysts believe that the Turkish public has grown impatient with Turkey’s foreign policy, especially concerning the Syrian conflict.

Erdogan is one of the bitter enemies of President Bashar Assad and has made Turkey’s participation in the international coalition fighting the jihadists conditional to toppling the Syrian regime.

Still, Ankara has been accused of allowing tens of thousands of foreign fighters to cross its porous borders with Syria.

Arab critics of Erdogan say he is seeking to extend Turkey’s influence in Syria and of reviving Ottoman hegemony in the region.

While Erdogan has risen to power through democratic means, his opponents accuse him of authoritarianism, even dictatorship, and of conspiring to end Turkey’s secular heritage.

His party relies mainly on the support of religious voters, especially in the countryside, but Erdogan has built an intricate network of allies among the country’s conservative business community and ambitious politicians.

However, in the past two years, opposition to AKP began to rise, especially among the youth, reaching a boiling point in 2012.

Erdogan has been criticised for intimidating his critics and for sending tens of journalists who disagree with him to prison. 

The latest upset could end the career of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who is party leader.

Erdogan achieved a decisive win last year when he was elected president, but his plans to change Turkey’s political system from parliamentary to presidential only bolstered the opposition, particularly secular, liberal and nationalist parties.

The biggest winner in this week’s election was the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which for the first time captured more than the 10 per cent of the vote needed to enter parliament.

It is believed that many non-Kurdish voters, especially liberals, sided with HDP as a way of sending a message of discontent to the ruling AKP.

So far, the three main opposition parties, including the rightwing Nationalist Movement Party, ruled out the possibility of a coalition.

One thing is clear now: Turkey will witness a tense phase of political instability and economic uncertainty until new elections are held or a narrow majority government is formed.

Erdogan will use the coming weeks to discredit his opponents and may even seek ways to undermine the new Kurdish party. He is unlikely to accept defeat or offer compromises. But that will be a mistake.

The Kurdish victory, which denied AKP its majority, is a major historical development, which Erdogan himself has helped deliver by striking a deal with jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party Abdallah Ocalan that ended three decades of insurgency.

Such gains by the Kurds, who make up about 20 per cent of the population, cannot be rolled back today.

As coalition talks continue in a bid to find a way out of the current stalemate, analysts will debate the effect of the election results on Turkey’s regional standing and its controversial role in Syria.

Again, it is unlikely that Erdogan will take a step back from his opposition to the Syrian regime. He has become an essential part of the anti-Assad Saudi-Qatari-Turkish axis that seems to be playing a bigger part in support of the Syrian rebels, especially the newly established Army of Conquest led by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Nusra Front.

Almost all weapons and fighters find their way to the Syrian rebels across the Turkish borders. Recent victories by the Islamist insurgents tipped the balance against the Damascus regime, especially in the north.

But with the latest election losses, one wonders if this will bring an end to the Turkish experiment under Erdogan, which has inspired Islamists across the Arab world.

It all depends on the snubbed president’s reaction to events in the coming few weeks.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.