Yemen after Geneva

The failure of last week’s Geneva talks over the crisis in Yemen was expected, but what was surprising was the indifference the Houthi-Saleh delegation demonstrated towards efforts to agree on a general framework for a political settlement.

The rebels’ delegation snubbed all attempts to launch a political process and reneged on earlier promises to withdraw from a number of southern cities, including Aden, as a gesture of goodwill.

Clearly it did not come to Geneva to find ways to implement UN resolutions or adhere to the conclusions of the national dialogue that took place last year.

By closing the door to a possible settlement that would have delivered a ceasefire or a temporary humanitarian truce, the delegation condemned Yemen to an open-ended cycle of violence and destruction.

The consensus in the wake of the Geneva talks was that the rebels wasted an opportunity to end the war and pave the way towards launching a genuine process that would put an end to Yemen’s calamitous ordeal.

The big question is: What would the Houthi-Saleh alliance achieve out of this?

On the ground, the rebel’s aggression continues unabated in spite of rising casualties on both sides.

The popular resistance forces have made some headway in various southern governorates, but the reality is that no one side has been able to achieve conclusive results.

In the meantime, the Saudi-led coalition continues to pummel rebel positions all over the country, but after three months of daily air strikes, the Houthi-Saleh insurgency is yet to be defeated.

It is clear that the rebels’ defiance is largely due to overt interference of foreign countries in the Yemen conflict. 

The country has become an open battleground where proxy wars are taking place in the framework of ongoing regional geopolitical confrontations.

Former president Saleh and the Houthi movement have formed an ironclad alliance with Iran and are relying on Russia to impede UN efforts to put pressure on them.

For Iran, the objective has nothing to do with securing Yemen’s interest, but to engage Saudi Arabia and its allies and draw them deeper into a quagmire.

Both Iran and Russia hope to use the Yemen card to pressure Saudi Arabia to change its position on Syria. The almost daily attacks on southern Saudi cities and border towns are meant to shake the kingdom’s resolve, but the opposite is likely to happen.

Riyadh realises that this is one battle it cannot afford to lose. Its military and political commitment will increase as a result of such provocations.

Saudi Arabia and the rest of GCC countries had little choice but to wage war in Yemen in support of the legitimate government in the wake of the Iran-backed rebel takeover of most of the country.

Today, the commitment to restoring legitimacy in Yemen remains solid. But with political efforts reaching a dead end, the coalition has fewer options.

The Houthi-Saleh alliance will not give in unless the military balance changes dramatically. And for this to happen, the objectives must be altered from weakening the rebels to defeating them.

For the resistance to succeed, it must score a major victory against its enemy; and this means that the coalition must achieve the liberation of Aden soon.

The coalition will have to create the right circumstances to drive the rebels out of Aden and allow the national government to return to the country.

This will involve additional military commitment, but that is now the only viable way to break the rebels’ momentum and reverse their aggression.

The return of the government to Aden will boost the morale of the resistance and will open the way for the supply of arms to fighters through the city’s port. It will also allow for a more consistent support of humanitarian efforts.

But that also means that the Yemeni conflict is turning into a prolonged one.

The UN can do little at this stage to force the rebels to come back to the negotiation table. And the Security Council is unlikely to adopt practical measures to execute Resolution 2216 by force.

Other venues for talks, such as Oman, are yet to prove viable.

The Russian call for an international conference on Yemen carries little importance in light of rebels’ refusal to implement UN resolutions. As the conflict draws on, the price the people of Yemen will pay will rise significantly.

Everything now hinges on the outcome of the war of attrition that the rebels have opted for.

Recapturing Aden has become a strategic goal for the coalition, providing a base for the legitimate government and a boost to the resistance.

Beating the rebels is the only way to sway the balance and provide for a resumption of a political path to save Yemen.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.