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The Putin-Assad future scenario

Mar 10,2018 - Last updated at Mar 10,2018

I have a hunch that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating jettisoning Syrian President Bashar Assad at some time in the near future, after he has "milked him" dry. Putin succeeded in securing for Russia permanent naval and airbases at Tartus and Hmeimim and brought Syria's sky completely under Russian control and the entire country under the tutelage of Moscow for as long as one can see.

The reason why I think this scenario is in the offing is because the second stage for Syria calls for much investment to have it repaired and reconstructed from ashes. Russia does not have the money to do that and needs international support and investment from rich nations including, of course, the Arab Gulf states.

Putin knows that Assad has become a liability after so much bloodshed and destruction and cannot, with him at the helm, secure the kind of reconstruction and rehabilitation that Syria desperately needs after eight years of warfare.

Putin must, therefore, be looking for another Syrian leader with a civil face and untainted profile, but still able to protect the vested interests of Russia and its geopolitical gains that have been secured after much investment from the Russian military.

Who that leader could be is hard to tell, but it looks logical that Putin has been in the lookout for such a follow-up leader. Besides, after eight agonising years at the helm, during which more than half-a-million Syrians have been killed and more than a million and a half rendered refugees in neighbouring countries and beyond, President Assad must be tired of it all and seeks a more normal life for himself and his family.

Assad must be thinking now more of his children and wants nothing more than providing them with a normal life with relative security. President Assad may receive an offer of a sanctuary for himself and his family in Sochi for example, where security can be provided. It would not be absolute sanctuary that can be offered by Putin to Assad and his family after the dust settles, but security nonetheless.

This could be the scenario that President Putin may have up his sleeves for President Assad as the second stage for Syria requires the consolidation of Russia’s grip on Syria, accompanied with redevelopment on a massive scale, requiring billions and billions of dollars.

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Comments

I actually agree with the writer. It's the only logical conclusion to end this. Let Assad "win" and pacify the country as quickly as possible. This is inline with the Americans as well. Once things quiet down Assad steps down with immunity from warcrimes.

IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST ARE MORE DISTURBED ABOUT RUSSIA AND ASSAD DEFENCE TREATIES THAN THE SUFFERING OF THEIR BROTHERS AND SISTERS IN PALESTINE. CONTINOUS BEATING THE DRUM OF RUSSIAN MILITARY
BASES IN SYRIA IS JUST NONESENCE AND HYPOCRICY. TELL ME JUST ONE COUNTRY IN THAT REGION THAT DOES NOT HAVE ANY
FOREIGN MILITARY BASES. ITS TIME TO TUNE DOWN THE BOMBASTIC AND HYPERBOLIC INFLAMATION OF THIS UNFORTUNATE LOSS
OF LIFE IN SYRIA THAT IS SUPPORTED AND FUNDED BY FOREIGN INTERESTS INCLUDING THE ARAB WORLD. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT I AM IN SUPPORT OF RUSSIA OR ASSAD BUT WISH THAT THE LEADERS OF THE ARAB WORLD CAN STOP THESE MADNESS OF FERMENTING AND MAKING WARS WITH LOTS OF MASSIVE UNINTENTED PUBLIC HEALTH CONSEQUENCIES. TELL THE TRUTH AND SAVE
THE REGION AND STOP RECYCLING THE MASSAGES FROM YOUR MASTERS.

Shiites believe in prophecy that half of the true believers will travel from Yemen carrying white flags to Mecca while the other half will travel from Karbala, Iraq, carrying black flags to Mecca. Thus, their true goal is capturing Mecca rather than Jerusalem which they are making it look like as a ruse.

I have a hunch that the author of this piece is engaged in wishful thinking.

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