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Tense times

Nov 28,2015 - Last updated at Nov 28,2015

It is no joke when a warplane belonging to a superpower is downed, as happened last week when a Russian SU-24 was downed by a Turkish E-16 warplane along the Syrian-Turkish border.

Russia’s ego and stature were understandably gravely wounded by the destruction of one of its planes by a much smaller power.

Turkey’s two versions regarding the circumstances that led to firing a missile on the Russian plane differ, but not fundamentally.

The Russian warplane must have crossed into Turkey’s airspace but very briefly, not exceeding 20 seconds.

Moscow says that its plane was hit over the skies of Turkey and crashed nearly four kilometres inside Syria.

Under normal conditions, and had there been a friendly or even normal relation between Moscow and Ankara, the brief incursion of a Russian plane into Turkey’s airspace would not have ended in the downing of the intruding plane.

Something else then must explain why a technical violation of Turkey’s airspace led to a major and dangerous confrontation between Russia and Turkey.

The reason must be the fact that relations between Moscow and Ankara are tense as the two nations do not see eye to eye on the Syrian conflict.

Russian military intervention in Syria targets forces opposed to Damascus, along with Daesh, but Turkey and its Western coalition partners wanted the Russian fire to be directed against the real enemy, Daesh, and not against the moderate anti-Syrian regime factions.

It so happens that among the Syrians being hit mercilessly by Russian bombs are also Turkmen, population that lives along the Syrian-Turkish borders.

The diverging perspectives of these two countries developed their own separate dynamics and put the two nations on a confrontational path.

Moscow seeks to maintain the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad at all costs and deems this objective as its top priority, even if that means turning its guns away from Daesh.

Russia has established naval and air bases in Syria and deployed strategic weapons on its soil, including the so-called S-400 long-range missiles.

Russia now controls most of the Syrian air and is not about to give up all these “spoils of war”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks and acts strategically, and his priorities are obvious.

With the US and other Western powers choosing to stay away from the Syrian quagmire over the past five years, a vacuum was created and Russia was more than eager and ready to fill it.

Whether the downed Russian plane was fired upon inside Turkey or over Syrian airspace is, therefore, not the real issue.

Merely flying warplanes along borders of neighbouring countries is provocative enough under normal circumstances, but to do so when relations are tense becomes more of a provocation.

Flying very close to the Turkish border was more than enough to ignite a military conformation under the prevailing geopolitical conditions in the area. This is not to mention the major differences  between Turkey and Russia over the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and other Kurdish forces fighting on Syrian soil that Russia is being accused of aiding and abetting.

The Russian may have inflamed the situation when, during his first press conference after the airplane incident, he criticised Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accusing him of having adopted an “Islamisation” agenda for his country.

A country’s faith must not be a bone of contention between nations or a reason to enter in conflict. 

Now, it is going to take masterful statesmanship to restore normal relations between Moscow and Western capitals, as well as Ankara, in regard to Syria.

French President Francois Hollande appears to be in the best position to help in this direction.

 

Holland’s recent talks with Putin in Moscow may have opened new windows of opportunities for that goal.

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