Is there a Plan B?

Much has been said about the so-called Plan B that the US and its allies have in case peace talks on Syria irrevocably collapse.

The US is using this magic card to pressure Russia, Iran and Damascus to move faster in the direction of a political settlement of the Syrian conflict.

Dangling this threat on and off has not proved effective, as Moscow, Tehran and Damascus seem unperturbed by this “theoretical” and obscure threat, perhaps knowing only too well that President Barack Obama has neither the stamina nor the temperament of decisiveness to deliver, having spent the last five years watching the Syrian crisis drift from bad to worse and end up a vicious and bloody armed conflict that took the lives of 300,000 people, saw more than 2 million injured and made about 5 million either internally displaced or refugees in neighbouring countries and farther.

It must be admitted that the Syrian conflict reached the level it reached on Obama’s watch, and history will hold him at least partly responsible for the death and destruction that occurred in Syria over the past five years.

Yet, the elusive Plan B might have some components that could still save the day in Syria even though it is too late and maybe too little.

The basic element of this plan is to provide the moderate opposition force in Syria with portable anti-aircraft missiles, known as “manpads”.

Obama has been reluctant to OK the delivery of this air defence system for fear that it may end up in the hands of terrorists, especially Daesh and like-minded forces fighting on Syrian soil.

This reluctance cost the opposition dearly and prevented an early political settlement of the conflict in Syrian by improving the bargaining position of the opposition.

Now, it seems the White House is getting closer to giving the green light to give the moderate opposition factions some of these weapons, especially in the aftermath of the Damascus regime forces’ attacks on hospitals and other civilian targets in and around the city of Aleppo.

But issuing such a decision, which will have to be taken, sooner or later, may still be delayed to allow pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin knows Obama’s state of mind, having tested him over and over and finding him reluctant and indecisive.

Clearly, the end of the Syrian conflict will not come without applying this miraculous Plan B.

Only when it is implemented will Damascus and its key supporters will move seriously in the direction of a political settlement.