The new coalition options for Germany's government

Germany has entered a new era. First, Angela Merkel no longer ran for chancellor. Merkel has governed the country as chancellor since 2005. Only Helmut Kohl, Merkel’s political mentor, who governed from 1982 to 1998, was in office longer than her.  

In addition, the political landscape has changed significantly. While still representing over two-thirds of Germany’s voters almost two decades ago, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with their forces combined barely account for half of the votes cast in Germany’s parliamentary elections this time. Competition from all sides is there.  

The results present a potential new chancellor with different coalition options: A coalition of the CDU, The Greens, and the FDP, also referred to as Jamaica-coalition due to the parties’ colours that when combined resemble the flag of the tiny Caribbean state, or a “traffic-light coalition” of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP. Another grand coalition between the CDU and the SPD that currently still runs the country seems unlikely. The once envisaged coalition between the SPD, The Greens, and the far left-wing Die Linke (The Left) is no longer an option: Die Linke fell under the 5 per cent threshold being now represented in parliament only due to a law that guarantees seats to any party that wins at least three constituencies as Die Linke did. All parties have in unison rejected any cooperation with the far right-wing AfD.  

The once small parties of the Greens and the FDP who served as little more than junior partners have risen to new power. Christian Lindner, the leading candidate of the FDP, is well aware of that. When he stepped in front of his partisans at the FDP’s headquarters in Berlin on Sunday, laymen observers might have assumed that he had won the elections by a landslide. “The political centre was strengthened, the political edges were weakened,” Lindner boasted, displaying the newly won self-confidence. In truth, the FDP won only 11, 5 per cent of the votes, standing fourth in line behind The Greens, the CDU, and the SPD.  

Yet, Lindner is well aware of the power his party wields. It has come a long way. Falling under the 5 per cent threshold in 2013 and dropping out of parliament it made a glorious comeback in 2017. He thus began talks with Merkel’s CDU and the Greens for a Jamaica-coalition government. But Linder was soon to show that he was not just a junior partner applying for power. He left the talks for a coalition shortly before a new government could commence its work, claiming that his party’s demands had not been considered satisfyingly. “It is better not to govern at all than to govern badly,” Lindner said. His actions had consequences for chancellor Merkel. Under pressure to form a new government, she began talks with the SPD for another marriage of convenience, a grand coalition. As for the country, it was practically without a real government for about half a year.  

No matter who Germany’s new chancellor will be, Lindner knows that either way he is likely to team up with both his FDP and The Greens. Over decades, the latter were his party’s bête noire. The FDP spared no effort to attack them. Yet, as of late, Lindner is making new overtures to his party’s erstwhile rival. During a televised discussion of all parties’ candidates following the announcement of preliminary election results on Sunday, he emphasised the power the Greens and the FDP now wield saying that they should hold talks with each other first before entering coalition talks with either the CDU or the SPD. His message was clear: we are the kingmakers! Annalena Baerbock, the Greens’ leading candidate, did not seem loth. As a result, both parties have agreed to begin talks on Wednesday.  

As secure as their position seems, there are several obstacles that both parties face. Baerbock and her party strongly advocate climate change mitigation, a rent cap, and a raise of the minimum wage. As for Lindner and his party, they promise tax cuts, pension reform, and limits to European fiscal integration. Although possibly compatible, their voters present them with another quandary: While the majority of FDP voters would strongly prefer a Jamaica-coalition over a traffic-light coalition, the Greens’ voters mostly endorse the latter. Thus, Lindner’s approach on television was highly pragmatic. Although emphasising the higher compatibility of his party with the CDU, he did not exclude any options.

 He knows why. Armin Laschet, the leading candidate of the CDU and the CSU, its Bavarian sister party, has led his party to a painful defeat. Although the race was tight, his party won a mere 24,1 per cent, thus crashing to a historic low and falling under 30 per cent in a national election in the country’s history ever. Despite his firm will to govern Laschet’s appearance at the CDU’s Konrad-Adenauer house in Berlin on Sunday was less than enthusiastic. Humbly, he expressed that there is no reason to be satisfied with the results. A coalition under his lead could turn out to be difficult. Meanwhile, critics of him and his strategy within his own party have started to raise their voices. The position of Olaf Scholz, the SPD’s leading candidate and incumbent finance minister, in turn, is more comfortable. Winning 26,7 per cent of the votes he can claim to be the victor albeit by a small margin, making a traffic-light coalition more likely. In any event, negotiations between possible partners could drag on for a while. However, Scholz expressed his optimism in a televised interview on the news broadcast Tagesthemen on Monday that talks with the Greens and the FDP will go well.

The writer is a German journalist and political analyst. He contributed this article to The Jordan Times.