The aftermath of the Aleppo debacle

The fall of Aleppo’s eastern districts to government troops did not happen in spite of the regime’s premature celebrations.

The siege that was supposed to lead to the biggest military victory by President Bashar Assad’s forces and his allies turned into a bitter defeat.

Almost 10,000 well-armed fighters, from a number of overwhelmingly Islamist rebel groups, managed to breach the siege and overrun government forces.

The Conquest Army claims it had killed hundreds and taken many prisoners. 

Now it says the Islamist alliance, made up mainly from Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham group — which was formerly the Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front — and Ahrar Al Sham, is expanding its offensive with the aim of liberating the rest of the city.

This is a big setback for the Damascus regime, which had hoped to make Aleppo’s fall a crucial upset in the dynamics of the five-year-old Syrian crisis. 

But what is even more embarrassing is the failure of Russia’s superior air force to abort the surprise rebel’s counteroffensive.

The US had stood idle by as government forces cut off the city’s eastern districts two weeks ago. It looked as if the Aleppo siege was part of a quid pro quo deal with the Russians, an effort to coordinate military operations against radical rebel groups, primarily Daesh and Al Nusra Front.

It remains to be seen if the US, Turkey and anti-Assad Arab countries played a part in boosting the rebel’s capacity to break through the siege. 

But Moscow was clearly rattled by events of the past few days.

In retaliation, its fighter jets pounded the beleaguered eastern parts of the city and two key regime military compounds that the rebels were able to overrun. 

As President Vladimir Putin gets ready to mark the first anniversary of his intervention in Syria, the strategic conclusion is that his air force has failed to change the military realities on the ground.

The only major outcome for Moscow is that it managed to remove the toppling of Assad from the political agenda.

The battle for Aleppo is not over. The regime will try to organise a fresh offensive at a great humanitarian cost to the city’s remaining 300,000 residents. 

It is not clear how this will affect a reported recent understanding between Russia and the US to coordinate military operations.

The Obama administration’s position on Syria fluctuated and there are signs that the Pentagon and the State Department have conflicting views on how things should evolve in Syria. 

And recently, CIA head John Brennan said he fears it may be impossible to save Syria from partition.

Meanwhile, the US-led coalition is concentrating its military efforts on one immediate goal: to provide support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as they wage a final bid to take the strategic border city of Manbej, which controls the supply route to Raqqa, the self-declared capital of Daesh.

For the White House, the fall of Raqqa in the coming months, hopefully prior to the November presidential elections, is key to salvaging President Barack Obama’s troubled legacy.

That leaves the Russians with a heavy load in Syria.

The latest rebel breakthrough in Aleppo has underlined the uncontested hegemony of Islamist groups, especially Al Nusra Front, over the Syrian insurgency.

America’s backing of SDF is a source of worry for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is scurrying to mend fences with Putin. 

The two will have a lot to discuss this week, but it is not clear how they will be able to reconcile their Syria agendas.

For Erdogan, the immediate threat now comes from attempts by pro-US Syrian Kurds to create a federal entity along the Turkish borders. But Moscow also realises that Ankara remains a strong supporter of Syrian rebel groups and may have contributed to the recent Aleppo debacle.

Ironically, the Aleppo events may give much-needed boost to Stephan de Mistura’s efforts to relaunch the political process in Geneva. But that opens the debate again over the fate of Assad and the nature of the proposed transitional period.

Some hope may come from a planned meeting of the Syrian opposition in London, which will include representatives of rebel forces, where delegates will attempt to present a fresh political vision for the future of Syria.

The question is will Moscow and Tehran agree on a new course where Assad’s role can be reduced or eventually eliminated?

Meanwhile, Moscow will intensify its air strikes on Aleppo and its outskirts to prevent a total collapse of regime forces. 

The outcome of the ongoing battle in Aleppo will affect Assad’s plans to open new fronts in other rebel-held areas, especially near Damascus. 

But most importantly, perhaps, it will present key players in the Syrian crisis with a new reality: a formidable Islamist rebel alliance that has now earned itself a seat at the negotiating table.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.