US on Syria

The much-anticipated Geneva negotiations between the Syrian opposition and the Damascus regime did not take place on January 25, as planned.

Dubbed “Geneva 3”, the meeting, also called proximity talks, would have launched a long and arduous political process, under Security Council Resolution 2254, to end the five-year civil war in Syria which has claimed over 300,000 dead so far.

UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura is expected to issue invitations to various parties to attend the conference now slated for January 29. But until late Monday differences over the composition of the Syrian opposition delegation remained, with Russia and Iran objecting to the presence of certain delegates representing, as they claim, terrorist organisations, and demanding the attendance of others who are seen as close to the position of the regime, Moscow and Tehran.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has taken it upon himself to mediate between various interlocutors, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the Riyadh-based Higher Negotiations Committee, which was formed after a broad meeting of various opposition groups in the Saudi capital last December.

On Monday, Kerry rejected allegations that he had pressured the committee to drop demands for a humanitarian truce to precede the start of negotiations and to amend the composition of the opposition’s team to Geneva.

Chief opposition negotiator Mohammad Alloush, who heads Jaish Al Islam group, accused Kerry of pressuring the opposition to attend the meeting with no prior conditions.

Syrian National Coalition (SNC) member Munther Makhos claimed Kerry threatened to suspend US aid to the opposition.

While others in the Syrian opposition denied such reports, it is clear that Kerry had moved closer to the Russian-Iranian view over the path of the political process.

He is said to have described the Geneva meeting as “talks” and not “negotiations” and that he defended the Russian demand that the opposition delegation be expanded to include representatives of the Kurdish Democratic Union (KDU), the Popular Front for Liberation and Change (PFLC) and Democratic Syria Council (DSC), all of which have special relations with Moscow and are not necessarily opposed to the regime of Bashar Assad.

The KDU’s military arm, Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), and the DSC, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab forces in eastern Syria, have been making big gains against Daesh recently.

Both Moscow and Washington view them as a major force in the effort to defeat the extremists.

The US-Russian understanding on Syria and the future of the political process irked the Syrian opposition and Washington’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

While Kerry was making his rounds, US Vice President Joe Biden was in Turkey to coordinate with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over Syria.

Biden announced that the US and Turkey are prepared for a military solution against Daesh in Syria if the Syrian government and opposition forces fail to reach a peace agreement in Geneva.

The perceived change in the US position could also affect Assad’s future, according to some reports.

Kerry is said to have suggested that while Assad’s presence remains a problem, he could still run for elections in the future, leaving his fate for the Syrian people to decide.

In addition, he is reported to have talked about the need to form a national unity government and not a transitional ruling body, as the Geneva I principles outlined.

This is symmetrical with the Russian and Iranian stands.

For Washington, which seems to have accepted the forceful Russian involvement in Syria, the priority is to fight and defeat Daesh.

For this to happen, the US administration would like to see bitter foes join together in directing their firepower against what is perceived as a common enemy, leaving the root of the Syrian crisis, which is the Assad regime, to be resolved at a later stage.

With Russia taking the lead in managing the course of the Syrian crisis, the US has opted to tag along, reversing much of its former policies in Syria.

There are reports that Washington suspended delivery of arms to so-called moderate rebel groups in southern and northern Syria.

This coincided with the launch of coordinated military offensives by government forces, backed by Hizbollah fighters and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and supported by Russian air cover in areas in northern Latakia, around Aleppo and in the Daraa governorate, in the south.

By mid-week, government forces appeared to have made significant gains in the north and were closing in on Aleppo.

This is important because it will strengthen the position of the Damascus regime in future negotiations.

The US has not commented on the latest offensives, a sign that its view of priorities in Syria is changing.

It now appears that the first round of the Geneva conference, if it takes place in the coming days, will be void of any true meaning.

Time will be wasted over procedures and the regime will almost certainly refuse to sit face to face with its opponents.

Furthermore, Russia might introduce a second opposition delegation, and there is talk about a third one as well.

The real event will not be taking place in Geneva, but on the ground, as regime forces advance, upsetting the status quo and weakening the opposition’s bargaining position.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.