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Far-reaching consequences

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The casualties of the Israeli bombardment of Gaza go beyond the immediate, painful, killing of hundreds and the injuring of thousands, many of them children, women and elderly.

When the dust settles, Israel will discover that its disproportionate response to the few rocket attacks launched by Hamas will have far-reaching, negative consequences on the peace process.

One casualty will be the peace negotiations Israel was having with the Palestinians and which registered some measure of progress in recent times.

Another victim is going to be the painstakingly nurtured peace talks with Syria.

Only a few days ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad announced that the indirect talks between his country and Israel, held under Turkey’s auspices, would become direct peace talks. There has been satisfaction with the progress thus far attained on the Syrian front, especially as peace between Israel and Syria could have opened the door wide open for regional peace negotiations.

Now the Palestinian Authority is under pressure to suspend all contacts with Israel, which will take the parties back to square one. And the damage will not stop there.

Having inflamed the spirits in the Arab and Muslim worlds, especially of Palestinians in the West Bank, the latter’s opinion, which is crucial for the development of peace talks, is pushed to shift towards Hamas which, therefore, is bound to emerge as the principal beneficiary of the recent escalation.

Israeli strategic planners should have calculated better the consequences of their state’s actions against Gaza. The cost of the Israeli attacks is great for all parties, but it will not spare Israel.

Through its aggression on the impoverished strip, Israel is going to reap much more than it bargained for.

If it had wanted to influence the forthcoming Israeli elections, it should have also factored in the impact of its actions on the upcoming Palestinian elections. The fact that they did not shows that the Israeli leaders did not do their homework properly.

A Hamas win means perpetual state of conflict, something it is difficult to believe Israel really wants for its people.


30 December 2008

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