Qatar building materials costs likely to surge ahead of 2022

DUBAI — The cost of construction materials in Qatar is likely to jump as the host nation intensifies infrastructure building ahead of the 2022 World Cup, and other building projects could finish late as a result, industry experts say.

Qatar is set to spend more than $200 billion on the soccer tournament as part of a 2030 development plan, although tough contract terms and state bureaucracy have left some contractors in difficulties.

Corruption allegations at soccer’s governing body FIFA have put renewed media focus on Qatar, although Qatari officials say they are confident the 2022 tournament will go ahead as planned.

The high level of construction activity, predominantly in the capital Doha, is already making it hard for contractors to get workers and materials to sites.

“The pinch point will likely be in 2017-19 when the construction work peaks, but the government can take measures to mitigate that,” said Nick Smith, partner at engineering consultants Arcadis in Qatar. 

He predicted materials inflation would be about 3 per cent in 2015.

“This will include early supply chain engagement, standardisation of products and direct procurement of certain items. Qatar is already pursuing some of these initiatives.”

Materials inflation could surge to 15-20 per cent from 2018, said Steven Humphrey, a director at infrastructure specialists AECOM.

Qatar witnessed a similar phenomenon ahead of hosting the Asian Games in 2006. Also, construction inflation fluctuates more than general inflation and small markets such as Qatar are less able to absorb changes in workload, a report by Arcadis unit EC Harris states.

“Qatar, like most other Gulf states, has suffered from projects being delivered late, sometimes over budget and usually because the scope has changed from what was originally set out,” said AECOM’s Humphrey.

“With a fixed deadline like 2022 these attitudes will not be permitted. As prices get squeezed, contractors who bid at the incorrect prices will shy away from doing the projects and move their resources into more profitable projects,” he added.

Qatar will import many of the building materials it needs from neighbouring United Arab Emirates. Doha’s limited port facilities mean these goods must travel on small barges or via truck through Saudi Arabia, adding to supply chain pressures.

“Contractors pick and choose what their priorities are, so there’s a real danger, looking at bids today where they seem very competitive, that these are projects that may not be able to be delivered on time,” added Humphrey.

Commodity prices have dipped, helping to mollify materials inflation in the short term, with spot iron ore prices slumping to a near four-week low last week as slow Chinese steel demand kept steel futures near their weakest since their 2009 launch.

Separately, sources say that Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), one of the world’s most aggressive sovereign wealth funds, will set asset allocation targets for the first time and restructure internal decision-making, in response to a drop in oil prices that has crimped available funds as competition for assets grows.

In a cryptic reference on QIA’s website, a tab saying ‘QIA Review — Coming Soon’ leads to a page which does not yet exist. The sources, who all either work in Qatar or for foreign institutions which work with the QIA, said the review process was currently ongoing.

They spoke on condition of anonymity as they did not want to jeopardise working links with the secretive fund.

A spokesman for the QIA, which is estimated by industry tracker the Sovereign Wealth Centre to have $304 billion of assets, declined to comment.

QIA, set up in 2005 by the Supreme Council of Economic Affairs, a body chaired by Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, was one of few sources of capital available to stressed sellers during the global financial crisis and thus snapped up, at rock bottom prices, many indiscriminate assets like ownership of the Shard skyscraper in London and Harrods department store, and stakes in Credit Suisse and Volkswagen.

Now, however, as the global economy recovers, QIA faces competition from other funds again as it seeks to diversify its hydrocarbon-centric economy. On top of that lower oil prices have reduced new investment funds available to it — though they still stand at tens of billion of dollars.

It’s also faced criticism for extreme secrecy because the fund doesn’t disclose its performance or total assets under management.

“As any organisation grows up, it makes much more sense to take a more institutionalised approach, and this is something which has happened at other sovereign funds in the past,” said a senior Gulf-based banker. 

Formal targets

The review would enshrine formal asset allocation targets for geographies and sectors for the first time, according to a senior Doha-based banker and a private equity source, ending the scattergun approach that marked the fund’s early years as it prioritised fast growth.

The fund was run between 2008 and July 2013 by Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Al Thani , a charismatic dealmaker who was also prime minister and foreign minister for most of his tenure and often used the QIA as a foreign policy tool, deploying its cash into areas which would help boost Qatar’s power and prestige.

Setting targets now could result in the fund exiting areas like food and mining where it overlaps with specialist funds such as Hassad Food and Qatar Mining. QIA is already evaluating its investments in some mining assets, sources told Reuters last week.

The review could also see tens of billions of dollars flow into new geographies to diversify a fund which in late-2013 was believed to be around 80 per cent invested in European assets.

That would crystallise a recently-announced shift towards the developed markets of Asia and North America. The fund said in April it would open an office in New York in light of its growing portfolio in the United States and last November announced plans to invest $20 billion in Asia over the next five years.

Those funds are likely to flow in particular to sectors where QIA has a penchant such as financial services, real estate and consumer goods, said a second source, a senior Doha-based banker.

Consensus

The other major shift expected to emerge from the review is a greater use of consensus in decision-making.

Its current director Sheikh Abdullah Bin Mohamed Bin Saud Al Thani, chairman of telecommunications firm Ooredoo for 14 years prior to joining the QIA, is heavily involved in most matters and asks to be briefed on everything going on, according to a Doha-based lawyer.

“There now seems to be a greater ethos of valuing all opinions, which makes people feel they are bringing their value added to the fund,” said the senior Doha-based banker.

It remains to be seen whether the review will advocate greater transparency for a fund rated in October by political risk group GeoEconomica as the only SWF not complying with the Santiago Principles, a voluntary code of practice meant to govern these often highly-secretive funds.

“Transparency is not an end here,” said the first source, a senior Gulf-based banker.

“There are always shades of grey when it comes to SWFs, especially when they are still evolving like the QIA, so it’s more of a case of gradual, steady progress and not just flipping a switch,” he added.