Conflicting interests undermining regional stability, democracy — analysts

AMMAN — The multiplicity of players in the regional arena complicates its political outlook, with the tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the spread of sub-state actors contributing to instability, analysts said on Monday.

Speaking at a joint workshop held by the Middle East Studies Centre (MESC) and the Turkish Middle East Strategic Research Centre (ORSAM), political analysts, academics and researchers said the “conflicting” interests of regional players prolong the reconciliation process in conflict-hit countries.

MESC Director Jawad Hamad said the “chaotic” political scene in several Arab countries as well as international interests in the region make democratic transformation a far-fetched possibility.

He added that political Islam movements, which believe and practice political participation including elections, are far different from those organisations that believe in and practise violence and terror even if they claim to be Islamic.

Commenting on Turkey’s role in the region, he pointed out “deep challenges” that contribute to the public seeing its policy as “reluctant”, especially after the Arab Spring, and it is often depicted as being “unclear” in Syria and “absent” in Libya.

Saban Kardas, president of ORSAM, said the erosion of nation-states and the decrease in the efficiency of regimes in a number of countries in the region have allowed sub-state actors and groups with sectarian identities to gain influence.

He added that territorial borders are “questioned daily and are losing meaning” as some states are not capable of controlling their borders efficiently.

A regional security framework or a collective security mechanism, with the membership of countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, could work to address and contain security issues arising in the region, Kardas noted.

The polarisation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is partially responsible for the region’s instability, according to Bayram Sinkaya, a Turkish academic and an ORSAM adviser.

Despite his country’s efforts to amplify economic cooperation with Iran, which is valued at $15 billion, Sinkaya said Turkey sees in Iran’s recent policies in the region and agenda of sectarianism and a pursuit of hegemonic power. This has prompted Ankara to lean towards the side of Riyadh.

Retired Lt. Gen. Qased Mahmoud agreed, adding that Russian presence in Syria and the changes in Turkey’s role in the region have pushed the latter country towards siding with Saudi Arabia.

He said it is unlikely for Iran’s political role in the region to expand further due to regional problems as well as American and Western challenges to any possible expansion.

For her part, researcher Neven Bondokji cited the gap between the cost of hosting refugees and the international aid provided for this purpose as a major cause of refugees and nationals joining extremist groups.

The problem does not stop there, she said, but extends to include those who leave these groups and return home and their need to undergo comprehensive rehabilitation programmes, which sometimes fail.

Bondokji cited the example on fighters in Afghanistan who later took part in other armed conflicts in the region.