Unemployment — economic or social issue?

Like all statistics, figures showing unemployment are only indicative. They could not be accurate because surveys are based on samples that may not be ideal.

The mere definition of the unemployed is a major factor that may influence the final results.

One survey stated that the number of unemployed who gave up and stopped to actively search for jobs is estimated at 25 per cent of the unemployed, or 4 per cent of the total labour force. This number is not included in the official unemployment ratio.

Had this group been accounted for as unemployed, the rate would have risen to 16 per cent.

The present unemployment statistics on quarterly basis are not very helpful in analysing the problem or making suggestions to tackle it.

The rate of the unemployed is stable at around 12 per cent.

During the last several years, no trend of rising or declining unemployment was detected. 

Unemployment at the above rate became a given.

If unemployment rate is actually stable, the number of newcomers to the labour market must be roughly equal to those who found jobs and were excluded from the stock of unemployed, resulting in a state of balance, albeit at an unacceptably high level.

The press reported recently that an estimate of the unemployed made by an international institution put unemployment in Jordan at 30 per cent, slightly higher than the average in the region, of 27 per cent.

This is, of course, a shocking figure, but then it was found that the international institute was not referring to the overall unemployment rate but only to the unemployment among youth and newcomers to the labour market, especially new graduates.

If that is true, then 70 per cent of the new graduates must have found suitable jobs within the first year after their graduation, while only 30 per cent joined the army of unemployed, which must have been reduced by a similar number, because part of the previously unemployed either found jobs or left the country to work abroad, mainly in the Gulf states.

Some facts in Jordan’s labour force are important to observe: the number of unemployed is lower than the number of non-Jordanians working in Jordan and taking jobs that are not acceptable to Jordanian nationals, an indication that unemployment in Jordan is not an economic, but a social and cultural issue.

The labour market in Jordan is distorted. Jordan has over half a million guest workers a higher number of its nationals work abroad.

However, this fact does not mean that replacement is practical or possible. 

The unemployed are not ready to take the sort of jobs currently filled by guest workers. Nor would the return of Jordanian expatriates make it possible to do without non-Jordanians, especially those engaged in agriculture, construction or domestic services.

The Ministry of Labour is trying to move, but is met with formidable difficulties. Any action taken one way or another is met with stiff resistance.