Hope from Yemen ceasefire

Saudi Arabia’s announcement that the coalition it leads would end its air raids on Yemen on April 22 was pragmatic and, under the circumstances, wise.

It is not clear if the announcement was the result of some kind of agreement on a political process or due to “pressure applied by the Obama administration for the Saudis and the other Sunni Arab nations to end the air strikes”, as The New York Times reported on April 21.

Worryingly, the Saudi-led bombing has yet to actually stop, but let us hope that the Saudis will keep their word and also lift the blockade on the country, which, aid agencies say, is also harming the innocent population, at least to allow basic needs and humanitarian supplies, if the idea of the blockade is to prevent weapons reaching the rebels.

Either way, after nearly a month of bombing, the Saudis do not have many options. To continue to escalate the war risks bringing Yemen to a total collapse and reproducing on the Arabian Peninsula the catastrophic situation in Syria.

That must be avoided at any cost.

“The bombing campaign which has received logistical and intelligence support from the United States, has drawn intense criticism for causing civilian deaths and for appearing to be detached from a broad military strategy,” The New York Times observed.

Commenting on a Saudi defence ministry statement that “the campaign had achieved its objectives”, the NYT report added that “it was unclear exactly how much the air strikes have advanced Saudi Arabia’s stated goal of helping restore a Yemeni government that collapsed many weeks ago”.

Measured by the fact that the US- and Saudi-backed President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has not been returned to power, the answer is clear: very little so far.

The Saudis did hint right from the beginning that the war was meant to facilitate a political process that the Houthi rebels were very reluctant to be part of as they were carried away by their easy military gains, which, many believed, brought them very close to a final victory.

Apparently the month-long air strikes did not bring the Houthis down on their knees, but their fighting ability must have been severely curtailed.

Their pre-war stubborn demeanour may have been eroded too. And yet, they are still there and can hardly be ignored as important partners in any future power-sharing arrangement. 

Contrary to some of the fanciful claims that the Houthi rebellion is part of an Iranian regional takeover, there is no doubt that the Houthis are part and parcel of Yemen and its people, and must be dealt with as such.

Like all current wars, this one is definitely ending without winners, and like all wars, it is leaving losers.

Yemen and its great people stand to lose most and to suffer most. 

They are caught in a fierce political and military battle between power-hungry and ruthless internal political factions willing to sacrifice everything in pursuit of their illegitimate political goals, and regional powers projecting their disputes onto the Yemeni theatre without regard for the people and their needs.

As noted, it has been almost a week since the ceasefire was declared, but strikes continue. 

The Saudis say they resumed their attacks to stop the Houthis from taking military advantage and consolidating their gains. Even if true, bombing is not a long-term strategy to rebuild Yemen. Political process and diplomacy should remain the primary goal.

What has been circulating is that there was some sort of tacit understanding coordinated by the United Arab Emirates, the US and the Saudis — others were mentioned too — towards a political settlement.

The broad lines would require the Houthis to withdraw from the cities, return the weapons they looted to the army and allow the legitimate government to take control, but under Prime Minister Khaled Al Bahhah who was recently appointed by Hadi as vice president.

As part of the reported outlines for an agreement, Hadi would have to step down.

There are also reports of shifting alliances among the rebels.

Ousted former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, heavily blamed for instigating the war and an unrivalled political opportunist, is calling for political dialogue, a sign of a rift with his Houthi allies, as well as a last-ditch attempt to salvage his sinking position.

Right from the beginning there were fears that this war would last longer than any of the initial optimistic expectations.

It is difficult to think of many examples of destruction and killing on this terrible scale resulting in a better outcome for anyone. The more likely outcome is deepened bitterness that will make an eventual political resolution much harder.

But the options remain scarce. The Saudis did offer a political gesture which the others failed to pick up, unfortunately.

Let us hope that the peace brokers will intensify their efforts to convince the parties to talk.

There is no question that a political settlement is in the interest of all parties, mostly of Yemen and its war-stricken people.