Strange bedfellows

The more I think about the “alliance” between Hizbollah and General Michel Aoun’s Al Tayyar Al Watani Al Hurr movement, the more I discern how fragile it is. 

The two sides have really nothing in common except, perhaps, a common enemy. They are far apart on religion; one is conservative Shiite group and the other a Maronite Christian sect. Their respective cultures, ethos and perspectives, therefore, are kilometres away from each other. 

On regional issues, the Palestinian cause does not figure highly for Aoun’s group, whereas for Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbollah, it appears to be a central concern and enjoys top priority. For Hizbollah, the fight against Israel and the liberation of Palestine is the prime reason for assembling such a big fighting force equipped with long-range rockets and other heavy armaments that many armies in the world do not have. 

On the other side of the ledger, the deep-rooted affiliation between Hizbollah and Iran is not really a concern for Aoun’s movement, but could be a patent worry. Being first and foremost a Christian, Aoun cannot be accused of being sympathetic to the rise of a mighty Islamic nation in the area that may exercise hegemony on his own country somewhere along the line in the future. 

On Syria, the two sides appear to enjoy a semblance of common interest and perspective in the sense that both value the friendship and support of Damascus and count on it in their efforts to survive threats from other opposing groups or communities. 

While Hizbollah is prepared to join the fray and fight on the side of the Syrian regime, as indeed it has already, Aoun’s group has not gone that far and he has no regional vision for his movement. 

Even more important and lasting are the cultural differences between the two sides, which enjoy diametrically opposed cultural values and ways of life. 

On all counts, the two sides remain strange bedfellows that entered into a marriage of convenience, which may not withstand the test of time when the dust settles in Lebanon. 

What could settle this transient alliance is the projected future of Lebanon. Is it going to be the Switzerland of the Middle East and an inward looking country with emphasis on tourism, banking, trade and commerce, or a country with a regional agenda that goes far beyond its borders? Let’s not forget that Lebanon is a tiny multicultural and multi-sectarian country with a small population of 4.5 million. Ideally that should define its true identity internally and its role in the region.