Viable alternative?

The battle for Ramadi has acquired a more critical importance after its fall to Daesh forces, not only because it is only about 100 kilometres from the capital, Baghdad, but also because it is mostly a Sunni metropolis that may lend support to the false proposition that the fight over Ramadi is one between Sunnis and Shiites, which is not the case.

While the Iraqi government is putting a brave face when it comes to the fate of Ramadi and voices confidence that its forces will be able to recapture the city, there are growing concerns that the fall of the city may become a turning point in the fight against radicalism and terrorism in Iraq in favour of Daesh.

Even the optimistic projection of US Secretary of State John Kerry that the sudden reversal on the battlefield in Iraq in favour of Daesh will be rectified soon, several observers, including former high officials from the US intelligence community and the Department of Defence, are casting doubts about Baghdad’s ability to overcome Daesh anytime soon.

What seems to compound the gravity of the situation is the call on Shiite militias to spearhead the counterattack to liberate Ramadi, a city populated by mostly Sunnis, which might render the armed conflict a sectarian warfare rather than a war against extremists.

The conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq needs a political, not a military, solution if the political rivalries stay so and do not assume religious overtones that could keep the country in crisis for a long time.

Convening a conference for this purpose in which all major players are invited, but also the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, could help, provided that it comes up with a blueprint for the sought political solution, which could be a federal state in which each of the major ethnic or religious communities forms its own semi-independent province within the Iraqi federal system of government.

The Kurds have already created their separate political order and there is no harm in having the Sunnis and Shiites go their separate way as well.

Too much blood has been shed in Iraq and there is no turning back from this reality.

A federal political order could be the only viable alternative.