Winning in the long run

We all became emotional and angry at the immolation of our pilot by the terrorist group Daesh.

The savagery and cruelty of the act made everybody desire vengeance on. As a result, statements, acts of bravado, marches, holding of funerals throughout the Kingdom and sorties on Daesh positions followed, with all cheering on.

Since this, as most conflicts demonstrate, promises to be a long and multifaceted conflict, short-term bursts of action alone do not suffice.

To sustain unity in spirit and resolve, and further buttress the domestic front, much more needs to be done.

It should not be surprising that a call for real economic reform will also be on Jordan’s current and future national agenda. 

This not a call to reform à la IMF, but a reform that encourages local development, in all 12 governorates, not just in Amman.

The current confrontation with Daesh should not lead to a larger government. Reform should target the creation of a smaller government through the growth of a vibrant economy.

One goal of this reform should be to shrink the demand for public sector jobs by having an extremely attractive private sector.

This is the safest and most necessary route.

According to American economist Robert Barro, only when the government is small (measured by expenditure as a percentage of the GDP) will its expenditures have a positive impact on growth, but when the government is large, its expenditure will have adversary effects on growth as inherent inefficiencies grow and spread throughout the economy.

Therefore, reform must address competitiveness, attract investment, and an expanded and enriched private sector.

Reform will not happen without encouraging the three freedoms: individual, civil rights and political liberties.

Higher quality growth (predictable long-term growth rates and high short-term economic stability) is spurred more by institutions of democratic regimes.

Civil and political liberties are also associated with greater overall equity and gender equality, which lead to further and faster growth.

Legitimate governments can make difficult decisions when it comes to reform; imposed ones are volatile.

Therefore, the very few voices that support Daesh and mayhem out there, albeit temporarily subdued, will most likely re-emerge as soon as the emotional peak subsides.

And here will be a desire among the military and security apparatuses to want suppress freedoms; alas, if that happens, reform will fail once more and more harm than good will be done.

A prescription, therefore, for our times is to maintain a strong military and security stance while carrying out reform above all.

The question should never be guns versus bread, but guns and bread. The task is difficult, but it can be done.

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