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HONG KONG — Asian markets were mixed on Thursday and oil edged up with traders trying to claw back Omicron-induced losses but still full of uncertainty after Wall Street suffered a late plunge in response to the United States reporting its first case.

News that a patient had come down with the new variant sent shivers through US investors who fear authorities will be forced to reintroduce strict containment measures or even lockdowns, derailing the recovery in the world's top economy.

That comes on top of a widespread belief the Federal Reserve will end its vast bond-buying financial support programme faster than expected and start hiking interest rates next year to prevent inflation -- now at a three-decade high -- from running out of control.

Traders were already feeling uneasy in recent weeks on concerns about the sharp rise in prices around the world caused by supply chain snarls, a spike in energy costs and a labour shortage.

The announcement of Omicron -- and warnings that vaccines may not be as effective against it -- sent them over the edge on Friday.

Experts say it will take weeks to fully understand the true danger of Omicron, though the World Health Organisation said vaccines would probably fend off the worst of the variant while Australia's chief medical officer suggested it might not be as deadly as others. 

Still, markets are highly sensitive to any negative headlines on the crisis, with the VIX gauge of volatility at its highest level since the start of February.

"Equity markets continue to play Omicron tennis, and traders looking for short-term direction should just wait for the next virus headline and then act accordingly," said OANDA's Jeffrey Halley. "Volatility, and not market direction, will be the winner this week."

Meanwhile, the OECD grouping of major industrialised nations warned the mutated strain threatens the global recovery and cut its growth outlook for this year.

The disquiet on trading floors was evident in New York on Wednesday when the announcement of the strain in the United States sent all three main indexes into the red, having spent most of the day in positive territory.

"The Omicron variant is the number one uncertainty facing the US economic outlook," Kim Mundy of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Bangkok all fell but Hong Kong, Seoul, Taipei, Mumbai, Jakarta and Manila rose.

London, Paris and Frankfurt dropped at the open.

OPEC and other major oil suppliers were expected to discuss their output plan on Thursday to help quell prices, with the likely impact of Omicron on demand likely to be a major talking point.

The grouping has already raised the possibility it will pause the increases, having been upset by a decision by the United States and other major consumers including China to release some of their own reserves.

Both main crude contracts rose on Thursday, though they remain well below their levels from a week ago before they tanked more than 10 per cent in reaction to the Omicron announcement.

"The arrival of the Omicron variant and the ensuing sell-off obviously increases the odds that OPEC+ will opt to hit the pause button," Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said.

Investors are also awaiting the release of US jobs data on Friday, which will provide the latest snapshot of the state of the world's top economy.

PARIS — The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned on Wednesday that the Omicron coronavirus variant threatens the global economic recovery.

The OECD lowered the growth outlook for 2021 and appealed for a swifter rollout of COVID vaccines.

The global economy is now expected to expand by 5.6 per cent this year, down from an earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent, the OECD said in its updated economic outlook which warns that low vaccination areas could create "breeding grounds" for deadlier virus mutations.

Its forecast for 2022 remains unchanged at 4.5 per cent, but the report was released only days after Omicron was detected.

"We are concerned that the new variant of the virus, the Omicron strain, is further adding to the already high levels of uncertainty and risks, and that could be a threat to the recovery," OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said at a press conference.

The report by the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the global recovery is continuing to progress.

But it warned that it "has lost momentum and is becoming increasingly imbalanced".

While the OECD said it was "cautiously optimistic" about the recovery, it warned that health, high inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and potential policy missteps are "all key concerns".

"The top policy priority remains the need to ensure that vaccines are produced and deployed as quickly as possible throughout the world, including booster doses," the OECD said.

"The recovery will remain precarious and uncertain in all countries until this is achieved," it said.

Fears of 'deadlier strains' 

In the "more benign scenarios", outbreaks could continue to prompt restrictions on people's movements, which could have long-lasting consequences on labour markets, production capacity and prices.

"The harshest scenario is that pockets of low vaccination end up as breeding grounds for deadlier strains of the virus, which go on to damage lives and livelihoods," Boone warned in an editorial in the report.

The report does not take into account the possible impact of the Omicron variant.

Analysts at Oxford Economics say the new strain could shave 0.25 percentage points off global growth next year if it causes mild effects, but it would cost 2 percentage points if it is more dangerous and a large part of the global population was forced into lockdowns.

The strain has been spotted around the world since South African experts discovered its existence, prompting new travel restrictions.

The World Health Organisation believes the variant's high number of mutations might make it more transmissible or resistant to vaccines.

Left behind 

Addressing other key concerns for the world economy, the OECD said it expected inflation to peak at the turn of the year before receding gradually in the 38-nation OECD, which includes leading developed and emerging countries.

Soaring inflation has caused commotion in the markets as investors fear that central banks will raise interest rates sooner than expected to tame runaway prices.

The OECD urged monetary policymakers to "communicate clearly" about how far they will tolerate inflation exceeding their targets.

Supply-side constraints and shortages, meanwhile, "should wane gradually through 2022-23" as demand normalises, production capacity grows and more people return to the labour force.

The OECD also highlighted "marked differences" in the recovery of countries around the world.

"Parts of the global economy are rebounding quickly, but others are at risk of being left behind, particularly lower-income countries where vaccination rates are low, and firms and employees in contact-intensive sectors where demand has yet to recover fully," it said.

In its forecast among individual regions, the OECD said the US economy should grow by 5.6 per cent this year, lower than its previous outlook which had already been cut for the world's biggest economy.

The eurozone's growth outlook was slightly lowered to 5.2 per cent.

For China, the world's second-biggest economy, the outlook was lowered to 8.1 per cent this year and 5.1 per cent in 2022.

The debt crisis at property giant Evergrande has raised concerns about its potential impact on the Chinese economy.

LONDON — World stocks slid on Tuesday after Moderna warned current vaccines might be less effective at fending off the Omicron variant and after eurozone inflation spiked to a record high.

Frankfurt, London and Paris followed Asia sharply lower before limiting losses to around half of 1 per cent, with sentiment dogged by fears of fresh economic fallout from the long-running COVID crisis.

Wall Street followed the lead as the Dow was off almost 1 per cent after the opening bell while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 0.4 per cent. 

Oil prices took a tumble following the Moderna remarks, which have reignited stubborn concerns over how the Omicron variant spread could hit energy demand.

Moreover, the markets selloff accelerated as data showed eurozone inflation rocketed on runaway energy prices to a record 4.9 per cent.

'Markets hate uncertainty' 

"It only took one comment from the boss of drugs firm Moderna to derail markets once again," noted AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

"Markets hate uncertainty, and this is precisely what we have now. No-one knows how much trouble the new variant is going to cause."

Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel's comments, in an interview with The Financial Times, sent traders running for cover.

"There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness] is the same level... we had with Delta," Bancel told the newspaper.

The high amount of mutations on Omicron and its swift spread in South Africa indicated the present jabs would need to be tweaked, he indicated.

In foreign exchange, the euro rose on Tuesday as data showed inflation in the 19-nation single-currency area soared in November to more than double the European Central Bank (ECB) 2  per cent target.

Sky-high inflation has placed intense pressure on the ECB and the US Federal Reserve to rein in vast stimulus programmes — with traders also fearing premature interest rate hikes to tame prices.

However, the emergence this week of the Omicron mutant coronavirus strain has complicated the picture.

In Britain, meanwhile, traders are also reassessing hopes of a pre-Christmas interest rate hike.

Prior to Omicron, the Bank of England had been forecast to lift rates to dampen near decade-high UK inflation.

"Hopes are fading that the Bank of England will raise interest rates later this month," noted Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Susannah Streeter, citing the uncertain impact of the new variant.

MADRID — The coronavirus pandemic will cost the global tourism sector $2 trillion in lost revenue in 2021, the UN's tourism body said on Monday, calling the sector's recovery "fragile" and "slow".

The forecast from the Madrid-based World Tourism Organisation (WTO) comes as Europe is grappling with a surge in infections and as a new heavily mutated COVID-19 variant, dubbed Omicron, spreads across the globe.

International tourist arrivals will this year remain 70-75 per cent below the 1.5 billion arrivals recorded in 2019 before the pandemic hit, a similar decline as in 2020, according to the body.

The global tourism sector already lost $2 trillion (1.78 trillion euros) in revenues last year due to the pandemic, according to the UNWTO, making it one of sectors hit hardest by the health crisis.

While the UN body charged with promoting tourism does not have an estimate for how the sector will perform next year, its medium-term outlook is not encouraging.

"Despite the recent improvements, uneven vaccination rates around the world and new COVID-19 strains" such as the Delta variant and Omicron "could impact the already slow and fragile recovery", it said in a statement.

The introduction of fresh virus restrictions and lockdowns in several nations in recent weeks shows how "it's a very unpredictable situation," UNWTO head Zurab Pololikashvili said.

"It's a historical crisis in the tourism industry but again tourism has the power to recover quite fast," he added ahead of the start of the WTO's annual general assembly in Madrid on Tuesday.

"I really hope that 2022 will be much better than 2021."

 'Confused' 

While international tourism has taken a hit from the outbreak of disease in the past, the coronavirus is unprecedented in its geographical spread.

In addition to virus-related travel restrictions, the sector is also grappling with the economic strain caused by the pandemic, the spike in oils prices and the disruption of supply chains, the UNWTO said.

Pololikashvili urged countries to harmonise their virus protocols and restrictions because tourists "are confused and they don't know how to travel".

International tourist arrivals "rebounded" during the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere thanks to increased travel confidence, rapid vaccination and the easing of entry restrictions in many nations, the UNWTO said.

"Despite the improvement in the third quarter, the pace of recovery remains uneven across world regions due to varying degrees of mobility restrictions, vaccination rates and traveller confidence," it added.

Arrivals in some islands in the Caribbean and South Asia, and well as some destinations in southern Europe, came close to, or sometimes exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter.

However, other countries hardly saw any tourists, at all, particularly in Asia and the Pacific, where arrivals were down 95 per cent compared to 2019 as many destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.

Closed borders 

A total of 46 destinations — 21 per cent of all destinations worldwide — currently have their borders completely closed to tourists, according to the UNWTO.

A further 55 have their borders partially closed to foreign visitors, while just four nations have lifted all virus-related restrictions — Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic and Mexico.

The future of the travel sector will be in focus at the WTO annual general assembly, which will run until Friday.

The event — which brings together representatives from 159 members states of the UN body — was original scheduled to be held in Marrakesh.

But Morocco in late October decided not to host the event due to the rise in COVID-19 cases in many countries.

Before the pandemic, the tourism sector accounted for about 10 per cent of the world's gross domestic product and jobs.

BANGKOK — A new $6 billion Chinese-built railway line opens in Laos this week, bringing hopes of an economic boost to the reclusive country, but experts are questioning the benefits of a project that has seen thousands of farmers evicted from their land.

The 414 kilometre route, due to open on December 3, took five years to construct under China's trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative which funds infrastructure projects.

Struggling strawberry farmer Anouphon Phomhacsar is hoping the new railway will get his business back on track.

His farm usually produces up to two tonnes of the red heart-shaped fruits a year, but the pandemic has hit the 2021 harvest hard.

It currently takes Phomhacsar three to four hours to send his strawberries to Vientiane by road, but he hopes the new railway will cut this delivery time in half.

He says it will also be easier for tourists to travel to camp under the stars and pick berries.

"In the future, foreign tourists coming to the farm could be in the tens of thousands," he said.

The train route will connect the Chinese city of Kunming to the Laos capital, with grand plans for high-speed rail to ultimately snake down through Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore.

Infrastructure-poor Laos, a country whose population stands at 7.2 million, previously had only 4 kilometres of railway tracks.

But now sleek red, blue and white bullet trains will speed along the new line at up to 160kmh, passing through 75 tunnels and across 167 bridges, stopping at 10 passenger stations.

Economic boost 

Despite registering only dozens of COVID cases until April, Laos' economy took a pandemic battering — economic growth declined to 0.4 per cent in 2020, the lowest level in three decades, according to the World Bank.

Hopes for a 2021 rebound were dashed — Laos locked down as it clocked up roughly 70,000 infections in the past eight months.

While the railway could boost tourism, freight and agriculture, according to a World Bank report, the government needs to undertake substantial reforms, including improving border clearance processes.

"The new railway is a major investment that has the potential to stimulate the Lao economy and allow the country to take advantage of its geographical position at the heart of mainland southeast Asia," Sombath Southivong, a senior World Bank infrastructure specialist, said.

The tourism industry is desperate for a pick-me-up after the pandemic caused an 80 per cent downturn in international traveller numbers in 2020 — 4.7 million foreign tourists visited the previous year.

Pre-pandemic young nomads crammed on to buses at Vientiane for the four-hour ride to adventure capital Vang Vieng — a journey that will now take about an hour by train.

The town, which has a former CIA airstrip, was notorious for backpackers behaving badly at jungle parties before it rebranded as a eco-tourism destination.

But the kayaks, river rafts, ziplines and hot air balloons have been empty of late.

Inthira — a boutique hotel nestled on the banks of the Nam Song River — shifted from a full occupancy rate to only a trickle of domestic travellers on weekends, says general manager Oscar Tality.

Tality hopes the railway and reduced travel times will give the industry a shot in the arm.

"Along the way people will see magnificent views of the mountains and will cross over bridges and tunnels. It will be a wonderful trip for those on the train," Tality said.

White elephant? 

Despite local optimism, some Laos watchers are concerned about the long-term viability of the project.

"The issue for Laos though is whether their economy... their private sector is positioned to take advantage of this transport system," Australian National University lecturer Greg Raymond said.

Two-thirds of Laotians live in rural villages toiling on the land, and the minimum wage is around $116 a month — a reported $13.30 train fare from Vientiane to the border town of Boten has attracted some social media criticism for being too expensive.

"When you look at the juxtaposition of this super modern railway and the countryside it is passing through - it's very stark. One does wonder whether the Laos people will be the beneficiaries?" Raymond said.

The project has already left some 4,400 farmers and villagers reeling after they were forced to surrender land.

Many have faced long delays receiving compensation or have been paid inadequate amounts, the Lao Movement for Human Rights said in a report.

"The compensation rate is very low. If you are asking villagers to move, how can they afford new land?" Laotian MP Vilay Phommixay told parliament in June last year.

But for others it is all aboard.

"There's great anticipation... there's a source of pride for the Laos people," Tality said.

NEW YORK — Americans returned to stores for the "Black Friday" kickoff of the holiday shopping season, but online data shows that consumers have been spending big for weeks amid worries over shortages.

The day after the US Thanksgiving celebration is the traditional start to the holiday shopping season, and normally sees Americans line up outside stores before they open to clinch deals on popular items.

After the pandemic kept crowds away last year, many shoppers were out in force Friday, a sign of how COVID-19 vaccines have returned life in the United States to something closer to normal.

"I just wanted to make sure that this Christmas was a good Christmas for all my friends and family," said a masked Sylvia Gonzalez as she waited in line outside the jewelry chain Pandora in New York.

But even before retailers opened their doors early Friday morning, e-commerce shoppers in the United States had already spent $76 billion since early November, up more than 20 per cent from the year-ago period, according to data from software company Adobe, which has projected somewhat fewer promotions this year in light of rising costs.

The jump has added to companies' optimism about the season, suggesting some shoppers heeded calls from businesses to purchase items early this year after port backlogs and other logistics problems sparked worries that popular goods would be in short supply.

Toys led the buying spree, with Adobe pointing to actions by "anxious parents increasingly aware of supply chain challenges".

The National Retail Federation projects overall spending could rise as much as 10.5 per cent to $859 billion.

Nonetheless, out-of-stock listings online are up 261 per cent compared with two years ago, according to Adobe.

Item in hand 

Retailers and market watchers are broadly optimistic about the holiday shopping season in light of low unemployment and relatively strong household finances due in part to pandemic stimulus bills enacted by the government.

Countering those positive trends are lingering supply chain problems, spiking consumer prices that have affected household staples such as food and fuel, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still far from over.

On Friday, stock markets worldwide tumbled on worries that the latest strain of the virus found in South Africa could derail the global recovery.

Reminders of the pandemic were visible throughout shopping districts in the New York borough of Manhattan.

Signs at Macy's reminded customers to keep six feet apart and pop-up COVID-19 testing sites were positioned outside stores where mostly masked crowds were large, but not as sizeable as before the pandemic.

"In 2018, it was more like the New York you heard of," said German tourist Ilke Zienteck. "Now, it's a little bit like a small town."

Still, the hum of customers inside shops suggested that many had adjusted to the "new normal" of pandemic living.

There were obvious gaps at some stores. At a Best Buy near Grand Central Station, a shelf of Apple accessories was almost completely empty, while the camera bags section had few remaining offerings.

Other chains like Victoria's Secret and Foot Locker have acknowledged shortages of some choice products.

Taylor Schreiner, a digital research expert at Adobe, expects more consumers to order online and pay for expedited shipping, or pick up goods at stores.

"It's not just because people want it quickly," he said in an interview. "Having the item in hand is the surest way to have the gift for the person."

January glut? 

An emerging worry in the industry is that retailers will be stuck with goods originally intended for the holidays but that don't arrive until January.

Macy's is generally canceling orders for items with a Christmas motif, but plans to keep other items if they are cold-weather-oriented and could sell later in the winter, executives said earlier this month.

Gap Chief Financial Officer Katrina O'Connell said the apparel chain was planning to hold some items for next winter.

"If we think items are going to be too late for the holiday season, we won't put them in stores or online and have them generate markdowns," she said earlier this week on a conference call with Wall Street analysts. "We'll hold them for next year."

Gap has been one of the companies hardest hit by supply chain problems due to lengthy factory shutdowns in Vietnam caused by the country's COVID-19 restrictions, which contributed to a loss of some $300 million in sales in the most recent quarter.

LONDON — Leading stock markets mostly rose on Thursday following data confirming a strong US economic recovery.

Frankfurt was higher in midday deals, with traders focusing on Germany having finally struck a deal to form a new government.

This helped to offset news that Europe's biggest economy had lowered its growth estimate for the third quarter amid surging Covid cases.

The major Asian indices mostly ended with gains on Thursday after a similar picture overnight on Wall Street.

US markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

"The quiet Thanksgiving Day session in global markets has seen European indices edge slightly higher, taking their cue from a better finish to the day yesterday, especially in the US where the usual pre-holiday buying helped to lift stocks," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG trading group.

Oil prices steadied, one day after the head of the International Energy Agency called on OPEC and its allies to take measures to help bring crude prices down to "reasonable levels".

A drop in US jobless claims to a five-decade low, along with a surge in consumer income and spending, reinforced optimism that the United States is well on the recovery track -- but added to pressure on the Federal Reserve to prevent overheating.

The readings came as minutes from the US central bank's November policy meeting showed officials were moving towards tapering their vast bond-buying stimulus programme -- known as quantitative easing -- at a faster pace as they try to tame rocketing prices.

The Fed also signalled it could raise US interest rates sooner than market expectations to keep a lid on rocketing inflation, fuelled in large part by high energy prices.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed on Wednesday with healthy gains ahead of the Thanksgiving break.

Tokyo led gains in Asia on Thursday, while Seoul was weighed by the South Korean central bank's decision to lift interest rates.

WASHINGTON — Prices across the United States rose by five per cent last month compared to October 2020 as the wave of inflation accelerated, the government reported on Wednesday.

The year-on-year increase in the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index was its largest since November 1990 and above the 4.4 per cent change reported in September. 

Incomes last month rose by a more-than-expected 0.5 per cent, while spending similarly exceeded analysts' forecasts with a 1.3 per cent gain.

The report indicates that Americans are continuing to shop and see their incomes grow even as inflation rises at record rates, with the data showing energy prices up 30.2 per cent from October 2020 while food prices were 4.8 per cent higher.

The inflation acceleration occurred at the monthly level too, with the price index rising 0.6 per cent compared to September, in line with analysts' forecasts.

Americans saw their incomes rise due to increasing wages and gains from assets, the data showed, indicating as well that the increase was undercut by the tapering of government benefit payments, likely due to the expiry of pandemic aid programs.

Consumers directed their spending towards both goods and services.

Much of the $123.8 billion increase in goods spending went to motor vehicles and parts, while international travel was a component of the $90.5 billion increase in services spending that was felt across sectors, the government said.

BEIRUT — The Lebanese pound sank to a new low on the black market on Wednesday, with no end in sight to the economic and political crisis plunging ever growing numbers into poverty.

According to websites monitoring the black market rate, the pound was trading at 24,000 to the dollar, or 16 times less than its official peg value of 1,500.

The new record, topping a previous peak in July, comes as the newly-formed Lebanese government has failed to meet for more than a month amid a festering diplomatic crisis with Gulf countries.

Lebanon's much-reviled political barons are also divided over the fate of the judge probing the deadly August 2020 Beirut Port blast widely blamed on government negligence and corruption.

With the currency losing more than 90 per cent of its value in two years on the black market, the purchasing power of Lebanese is plummeting and the minimum wage is now worth less than $30.

According to the United Nations, four in five Lebanese are now considered poor. The World Bank estimates Lebanon may need almost two decades to recover its pre-crisis per capita gross domestic product.