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After the battle for Aleppo

Dec 18,2016 - Last updated at Dec 18,2016

The battle over Aleppo is one of the most important developments in the efforts to reach an end to the Syrian crisis, even though it will not be the last battle in the country.

Observers say that the battle for Aleppo is a major step for the Syrian regime’s regaining control of the country. 

In the absence of a clear American vision for Syria, Russia and its allies seized the moment to recapture Aleppo. 

Russia made a deal with Turkey to limit its involvement and support for the rebels in Aleppo. With the Turkish borders closed, the balance shifted.

Recapturing Aleppo does not give the Syrian army control over all Syrian territory, but will help refocus the conflict on the single dimension of fighting terrorism.

A Trump White House will no doubt support this, as the US president-elect has frequently expressed that his priority in Syria is to fight terrorism, and not political change. 

With the possibility that leaders will change in France and other European countries later next year, we may see more support for a similarly single-minded focus in Syria.

The battle for Aleppo will push the fight down to the south of the country. 

While Turkey was engaged in the north of Syria because of the proximity to its borders, Jordan may be forced to take a similar level of engagement as the fight pushes towards the south. 

The impact this battle will have on the Jordanian border will certainly decide the level of Jordanian engagement. 

Jordan is closely monitoring the developments on that front. 

Militarily, the Jordanian army is keeping the border under careful surveillance and setting the rules of engagement for any possible attack.

Jordan faces threats as much of the border territory is controlled by Daesh.

During the battle in Mosul, there were reports of Daesh fighters close to the Jordanian border. 

Moreover, the recapture by Daesh of the city of Palmyra is bound to put more pressure on Jordan.

The challenges for the Kingdom are only likely to increase and become more difficult to face. They will require a new way of dealing with threats, not just militarily and logistically, but also politically.

Jordan needs strong relationships with the Iraqi and Syrian counterparts, and has to build strong alliances with countries that can help it confront any threat.

 

 

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