An assessment to consider

Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger warned in a recent article published by CapX, a British online news website founded by the Centre for Policy Studies, that the defeat of Daesh could lead to an “Iranian radical empire”.

While most non-Daesh powers, including Shiite Iran and leading Sunni states, express desire to destroy Daesh, the question is who is going to “inherit” the territory it had occupied, asked Kissinger, tabling two options: a coalition of Sunnis or a sphere of influence dominated by Iran. 

“In these circumstances,” he said, “the traditional adage that the enemy of your enemy can be regarded as your friend no longer applies.”

Kissinger is no novice when it comes to geopolitical analyses and predictions, and his words should be wisely considered.

The former secretary of state’s biggest fear is that Tehran and its allies in the region are going to have an increasingly bigger role in the Middle East.

If the Daesh territory is occupied by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards or Shiite forces trained and directed by them, he posits, the result could be a “territorial belt reaching from Tehran to Beirut, which could mark the emergence of an Iranian radical empire”.

This worrisome prediction was made years ago by His Majesty King Abdullah who had warned that unless precautions are taken, a Shiite arch could emerge in the region connecting Iran with Lebanon through Syria and Iraq.

No matter how statesmen view Kissinger’s warnings, it would be prudent to consider them when formulating and adopting policies for the post-Daesh era.

There are visible signs already that the warning is actually taking shape on the ground.

The Middle East countries and others need to take collective measures to offset this great design by Iran. Short of that, the region will be perpetually plagued by religious rivalry that could spawn conflicts for many more years to come.

Moscow and Washington, in particular, as the two most influential capitals that can also act, should seriously consider formulating a plan that helps the Middle East become a region of peace, not a continuous source of conflict and animosity.