In the battle for Mosul

The battle to wrest Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, from under Daesh control since 2014, is under way, but the war is complicated by the many vested interests of the parties wishing to lay claim to it while, for the time being, they joined the battle for its recapture.

The city, in a contested oil-rich region, is prized by the Baghdad government, but also by the Turks and the Kurds; the Iranians would not shy away from spreading their influence there, although for the time being, Haidar Al Abadi, the Iraqi president, was “persuaded” to keep away the Iran-led Popular Mobilisation Units, from a nearby military base, as they would have no qualms about entering and looting this Sunni city.

The Iraqi army, made up mostly of Shiites, is the principal party to the war effort and, as such, has the strongest claim.

The peshmerga, allied with the army for now, represents the Kurdish dimension in the attempt to control this city populated, in part, by Kurds.

Turkmen, trained and armed by Turkey, also take part in the battle to recapture Mosul. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that Turkey, which has a long border with Iraq, cannot afford to sit on the sidelines and watch the events unfold in this Arab country because that, in his view, would undermine his country’s security and stability.

Then, there are US and UK special forces, deployed to help, added to the Christian and Yazidi elements, which further complicates an already complex situation.

If the battle starts in earnest and bombs start to rain from Western, US included, air forces, this densely populated city’s casualties will be much higher than Aleppo’s. 

Another disaster is thus awaiting the population of Mosul, already traumatised by Daesh and wary about the presence of Shiite militias that gained notoriety for their treatment of people fleeing Fallujah, Ramadi, Tikrit and other Sunni cities while they were being freed from Daesh control.

Under such circumstances, the military effort to recapture Mosul may turn out to be the easiest part, while deciding who has control of the city may become a drawn-out process with a difficulty to predict outcome.

The fallout of the battle should not be forgotten either. There will be dead, wounded, displaced and refugees, a gloomy picture that is difficult to ignore.

Still, Daesh has to be rooted out.

Maybe those taking part in the battle for Mosul will have learnt something from Aleppo, Fallujah and other places, and will spare this Iraqi city the death and devastation visited upon others.