Figuring out the Russian move

Russian President Vladimir Putin abruptly ordered the bulk of the Russian forces deployed in Syria to withdraw, after saying that their mission has been accomplished, prompting speculation about the move.

The decision took many by surprise and keeps political analysts and media pundits busy coming up with theories and counter-theories “the real” reasons for this dramatic Russian move.

Some say the Russian air power did all it could to prop up the Syrian regime, so it is time to recall the troops to avoid getting them mired in a war reminiscent of Afghanistan.

Actually the Russian intervention was decisive in tipping the scale in the civil war in Syria, and that way, Russia can indeed claim “mission accomplished”.

Others believe that the timing of the announcement was chosen to coincide with the resumption of peace talks on Syria in Geneva.

That way, and especially considering the statement by a spokesman for the rebel High Negotiations Committee that “if there is seriousness in implementing the withdrawal, it will give the talks a serious push”, Russia could claim a role in the negotiations and the shaping of Syria’s future.

On the other hand, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem on the on the eve of the Geneva peace talks that the fate of President Bashar Assad is non-negotiable and a red line that will not be crossed. 

That may have struck a sensitive cord in Moscow whose intervention was intended to help Assad regain power, which was fast waning, but that did not associate itself with such a rigid Syrian stance.

The sudden troop withdrawal order, which took both the West and the Syrian leadership by surprise, might, then, be meant as a signal to Assad that his regime cannot count on Russian military support forever, especially when such an involvement carries a very high, difficult to sustain, political and economic cost for the Russian Federation.

Whatever the real reasons for the Russian move, it surely changed the military and political dynamics in Syria and may, one would hope, end up accelerating the political process in the country.

The Russian rouble rose immediately after the Russian move, which suggests that financial considerations may have weighed highly on Putin’s mind when he adopted his position on Syria.

Moscow has a clear interest in halting the drop in oil prices in the international market, and for that to happen, he needs the support of Saudi Arabia and the US. This will probably get once the peace process in Syria goes in the right direction.