Tide turning against Assad?

Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regional allies have left no stone unturned to ensure the survival of the regime. 

While throughout the four-year-old confrontation the stalemate continued, the past days brought news of unremitting victories of the rebels.

The crucial Nassib border crossing with Jordan — an important trade route — fell in the hands of rebels. Additionally, rebels made significant gains in Idlib, in the north, thus posing a serious threat to the regime’s chances of survival.

Many observers thus ask whether this new trend is a game changer.

While Assad’s propaganda machine insisted that victory was within reach, the latest developments in the region triggered by the assertiveness of Saudi Arabia in dealing with various kinds of regional challenges apparently created a different momentum that would most likely affect both Assad and his allies in Tehran.

Fearing the consequences of the losses Assad’s forces endured in the past week, Assad dispatched his defence minister, Fahd Jassim Al Freij, to Iran.

Contrary to what the mouthpieces of Assad regime said, the visit was to beg Iran for more assistance in the face of the unfolding terrifying events.

For the first time in two years, the survival of the Assad regime is hanging in the balance and it seems that the Alawite-dominated regime is facing a moment of truth.

Given the bullying tactics of Iran in various parts of the Middle East and the fact that the United States has turned a blind eye on Iran’s subversive tactics in several Arab countries, many thought that the Arabs would only stand idle by while Iran actively helps its proxies to win the struggle in Syria.

The same impatient pundits and some policymakers began to believe that nothing could be done to reverse the tide of events in Syria and that Assad would emerge as a clear winner in the months to come.

To rally international support for the embattled Syrian regime, Tehran and its proxies sought to frame the struggle in Syria as one against “terrorists”. 

This tactic has not worked well for Assad.

Things have changed. Saudi Arabia is more assertive than ever. The new policy adopted by King Salman is behind much of the change in Syria.

When the Iranian-backed Houthis staged a coup and sought to subjugate the Yemenis, the Saudis stood up for them. The Saudi-led campaign proved that the Houthis could be defeated.

Building on the success in Yemen, Riyadh and Ankara cast aside their differences and worked together in Syria.

Obviously, the rebels’ success over the last week is a reflection of the Saudi-Turkish coordination. If this trend continues unchecked, Assad’s survival is at stake.

If anything, the recent defeats of Assad’s forces means that Iran’s proxies are losing serious ground.

The government forces and Hizbollah are losing areas they had captured and boasted of as signalling a beginning of winning the war.

Of all the recent losses, the loss of the town Jisr Al Shughour is of great strategic importance. Now rebels are in a position to control the roads to the Alawite strongholds.

Some may argue that this is not yet a game changer and that the end of the conflict is still not on the horizon. But one should not forget two emerging key dimensions. 

First, it appears that key Sunni capitals are joining forces and taking the initiative to check Iran’s growing influence. Second, there is an explicit crack in the inner circle of the regime and a growing opposition to the dominating role of Iran.

Not long ago, Assad had to fire key members of his inner circle, chief among whom Rustum Ghazalah who died in mysterious circumstances.

There are many stories about Alawites sending their sons abroad to avoid Assad’s attempt to recruit more fighters.

In brief, one could say that more than ever before, regional supporters of the Syrian revolution are bent on changing the ground rules of the revolution and on preventing the emergence of an Iran-dominated Shiite crescent.

This is a game changer.

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