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Sobriety can save the day

Nov 28,2015 - Last updated at Nov 28,2015

The shooting of a Russian warplane by Turkey galvanised public opinion attention in our region. 

Some financial analysts compared it to the events, 100 years ago, of
the summer of 1914, when Grand Duke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in the city of Sarajevo, which led to World War I.

Some religiously oriented pundits saw in the downing of the Russian Su-34 an advance warning of an approaching Armageddon, when Moscow will retaliate militarily, and occupy Constantinople in a way similar to what happened to Georgia in 2008 and to Crimea in 2014, which is a sign portending great change within six months following that.

The tragic incident started by a “hasty overreaction” by the Turkish President Recep Yayyip Erdogan, who allowed his dissatisfied military top brass to apply the rules of engagement indiscriminately against a plane that entered and left within five seconds their airspace, put the president in an embarrassing situation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had his share of “hasty overreaction” when he asked in a patronising manner an “immediate apology from the Turkish president or else”.

It was a tone that would never be accepted by Erdogan, who had just been reelected by his people with an overwhelming majority of votes.

Turkey could afford to be on a collision course with Moscow years ago, during the cold war era, when Europe and the United States were in total solidarity with and support of Ankara.

But changes in the geopolitical priorities made every Turkish citizen realise that his country was abandoned by Europe and the NATO alliance.

It is not in Turkey’s interests to lose 56 per cent of its energy needs that is supplied by Russian gas at a cheaper rate.

That hasty overreaction by Erdogan could cost his country nearly $50 billion, which is the total sum of annual exports to Moscow and tourist revenues.

The same criterion applies to Putin, who realises that his country needs Turkey as a regional superpower that controls all the routes that Russian ships need to reach the Mediterranean naval bases through the Bosphorus straits.

Fortunately, sobriety prevailed finally when Turkey announced that the jet bomber was mistaken for a Syrian plane, and had Ankara known it was Russian, the Turkish air force would have acted differently.

The process of de-escalation prompted Moscow to stress that no military option will be resorted to, but only economic sanctions will be applied against Turkey, a penalty that Erdogan can afford easily.

 

The two main protagonists are due to meet in Paris next week as part of the climate change summit, and some reconciliation might take place.

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