Conflicting agendas on Syria

Nowhere is the conflict in agendas over Syria more evident than in the northern city of Manbij.

In recent days, it has become a magnet for a multinational military build-up that includes major players — most are at odds with each other — today in the Syrian arena.

The city of 70,000 citizens, 130 kilometres northwest of Raqqa, is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its predominantly Kurdish militia the YPG.

It was wrested from Daesh last August and is now being perceived as the fulcrum for a final push towards Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the militant group.

With Turkish-backed Syrian rebels closing in on the western outskirts of Manbij, the US has moved to deploy an additional 200 Marines to act as a buffer.

This prompted the Russians to place their own troops at a nearby base, along with Syrian government forces.

Until few days ago, the prospect of a breakout of clashes between the YPG and Turkish forces was high. But with the latest US intervention, it now looks like Ankara’s unilateral push into Syria’s north had finally reached its limits.

Both Washington and Moscow decided that the Turkish incursion must stop here, upsetting Ankara’s plans to oust the YPG from Manbij and take the lead in the advance towards Raqqa.

More interesting is the fact that SDF handed over at least five villages south of Manbij to Syrian government forces.

The message to Ankara is clear: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s adventure in Syria, where he was hoping to establish a de facto safe zone almost half the size of Lebanon, was over.

It appears that the administration of President Donald Trump has made up its mind on who will lead the race to Raqqa.

By deploying a total of 700 Marines with access to armour and artillery, Washington was giving the Kurdish militia the green light to prepare for the final push towards Daesh’s self-proclaimed capital.

Despite the Russian-Turkish entente on Syria, which launched the Astana talks following a nationwide ceasefire agreement last year, President Vladimir Putin is refusing to bow to Erdogan’s demands in northern Syria.

For Moscow, the coming weeks will be crucial in deciding the direction of the Syrian political process.

Putin knows that despite the hype over how difficult the battle for Raqqa will be, in reality Daesh as an organisation has been mortally wounded and is on the verge of losing Mosul in Iraq.

Most of its key leaders have either been killed or were dispersed into the desert.

Those who remain in Raqqa are demoralised, and while they will put up a fight, the outcome of the battle is assured.

For Trump, conquering Raqqa represents a decisive personal victory over Daesh, one that he promised as candidate and as president.

The SDF/YPG proved to be a reliable partner and their success will not upset the political process on the future of Syria.

The recent US deployment is testimony to a shift in Washington’s strategy that entails an active role in deciding the future of Syria.

It is no wonder that the latest intervention is viewed with suspicion by both Damascus and Tehran.

President Bashar Assad described all uninvited forces in Syria, including the US, as “invaders”. Iran claimed that the US intervention in Syria will inflame the region.

A much larger US build-up is also taking place in Iraq.

The situation in Manbij underlines the complexity of the Syrian conflict and the latest military developments will brim over onto the political talks in both Astana and Geneva.

Turkey will be worried that the expected SDF/YPG victory will exact a price in any future settlement in the form of an autonomous enclave that is too close to home.

Russia has submitted a draft constitution to Damascus that gives Syrian Kurds more administrative freedom within a decentralised system of government.

Erdogan’s visit to Moscow last week must have centred on ways to stem Syrian Kurdish political ambitions and on Turkey’s desire to play a part in the liberation of Raqqa.

Relations between Washington and Ankara remain in flux, as Erdogan continues to wait for a positive overture from the Trump administration, especially over the demand for the extradition of cleric Fethullah Gülen.

For Iran, the US presence in Syria is a threat to its own regional agenda.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of Iran’s growing role in Syria during his meeting with Putin in Moscow last week.

The Kurdish push for Raqqa is slated to start in the coming few weeks with aggressive US backing.

It is not clear if Washington and Moscow are coordinating their moves or just reacting to what the other side is doing.

One thing is clear: No one knows what the endgame in Syria will look like following the defeat of Daesh.

The political path is more challenging than ever and with major powers now physically entrenched in parts of Syria and, in the case of Manbij, within striking distance from each other, arriving at an agreement that will satisfy all looks impossible.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.